Brownouts: Worst is yet to come

Today, despite the havoc left by super typhoon Yolanda, we may be able to safely say that the economy is still doing well.  However, notwithstanding this encouraging development, the fact remains that energy-related issues, such as the volatility of oil prices, the ever increasing cost of electricity and the apparent lack of it have remained to hound us.  Notably, due to these predicaments, the country has remained a title contender in the “highest cost of electricity contest” in Asia, the other being Japan, the world’s third largest economy.  Surely, in the coming years, we shall continue to enjoy such top billing as the Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) raises its rates by more than P4 (as recently announced) per kilowatt-hour.  Unfortunately, as what had been the norm, whatever problems or concerns (like the worsening power shortage, increasing cost and the volatility of oil prices) we raise at this time will just get the usual buck passing and sugar-coated lip service. 

This fact is clearly seen in how we dealt with the power crisis in Mindanao.  To recall, in a conference among stakeholders a few years ago, it was established that despite the multi-million peso rehabilitation works of Pulangui Power Plant IV in Maramag, Bukidnon, and the Agus 6 hyrdoelectric plant in the Agus River in Lanao del Norte, Mindanao still lacked 200 megawatts.  Consequently, in the summer of 2010, with daily power outages lasting between 7 and 10 hours, the businesses in Mindanao reported P300 million in losses due to lower sales and higher power costs as they had to use generators.  Since, expectedly, power outages will last until 2015 (when two ongoing coal-fired power plants shall be completed) then, that would mean two more years of agony.

Likewise, as we in the Visayas brace ourselves through the devastations brought about by the tremor and super typhoon Yolanda, we should prepare for the worst.  As we try to resurrect whatever is left from the rubbles, such endeavor shall also bring about inconveniences to ourselves.  Notably, while we shall try to bring life to our devastated communities (such as those in Northern Cebu and the entire Eastern Visayas) by putting up the much needed power lines, the same thrust shall bring about miseries in the already miserable power outages Metro Cebu is currently in.  Simply put, if the power lines are up, these lines shall need energy or electricity. 

The current situation we are in isn’t desirable at all.  We are already experiencing rotational brownouts.  Obviously because supply is too little compared to our current demand. The reason, the geothermal plant in Tongonan, Leyte which used to supply between 500 and 600 megawatts was badly damaged and can only dispatch 57 megawatts into the grid.  If the rehabilitation of the power lines will be finished way ahead of the damaged geothermal plant, the demand shall sharply surge.  Consequently, therefore, whatever is the present supply right now will likely be shared, and rightly so, with these communities.  Thus, resulting to more and longer power outages in Metro Cebu.

With this supply deficit imminent, residents will be forced to use gas lamps and businessmen shall be compelled to run their factories with generators. Considering the prices of diesel these years, businesses (especially, factories) had to bear the brunt of higher manufacturing cost.  Worst, not only are these power shortages be forcing companies to operate their own generators in millions of pesos a day in diesel fuel, those who can’t afford to have one have to pay workers even when the factories won’t operate.   

Somehow, we may be able to take a sigh of relief that the Tongonan geothermal plant will be back in its usual generating capacity soon.  However, with all these ongoing developments, like mega malls, skyscrapers (office and residential condominiums and IT buildings), subdivisions, hospitals and factories, which shall soon become permanent users of huge loads, the power situation may not improve at all. In fact, if left unattended, our power situation may even be more severe than that of Mindanao.

Indeed, the often set aside rising power cost and the worsening lack of it are felt all over the country.  These crises are prevalent, felt and withstood till near submission by every citizen.  Quite frankly, unless we become masochists, we will never get the feeling of contentment from the consequences of these menaces.

For your comments and suggestions, please email to [email protected].