RP catching up w/ other ASEAN countries - report

The Philippines is catching up with other ASEAN countries in terms of growth prediction this year, as it is seen to grow at least five percent backed up by a recovery in investments.

The Institute of Developing Economies-Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-Jetro) released its "2006 Economic Outlook for East Asia," which provides estimates for 2005 as well as prospective 2006 growth figures for China, the four Asian NIEs (Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Republic of Korea (ROK), Singapore and Taiwan) and the ASEAN five which include; Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

According to the report, the East Asian economy as a whole will post solid growth of 7.0 percent in 2006. China's economy may slow somewhat, while growth is expected to pick up in the ASEAN five and four Asian NIEs.

The combined inflation rate is forecast to remain almost unchanged from the projected 2005 figure at 4.1 percent.

China's economy, which is expected to remain buoyant in 2006, is forecast to grow 9.0 percent down half a point from this year's projected growth figure.

The combined growth rate for the four Asian NIEs will recover to 4.9 percent in 2006, up 0.6 points from the projected 2005 figure. ROK and Singapore, fueled by brisk investment and increased exports, are expected to post growth figures of 5.0 percent and 5.7 percent respectively.

Taiwan, despite stagnant investment, is forecast to grow at 4.1 percent led by increased exports. Reflecting a slowdown in the Chinese economy, Hong Kong SAR is projected to mark only moderate growth, at 5.4 percent, in 2006.

According to the report the growth of Philippine economy in 2005 which was predicted at 4.8 percent, was largely pulled up by overseas remittances. This year however, increased investment is seen to strengthen the economic picture in the Philippines.

The report further predicts a stable 5.4 percent growth for the combined economies of ASEAN 5 in 2006 roughly the same as the projected 2005 figure.

Individually, Indonesia is forecast to grow at 5.4 percent (close to projected growth figure for 2005). Thailand will mark solid growth in 2006, adding 0.4 points year-on-year to reach 5.0 percent, boosted by the government's aggressive fiscal policy.

Also, Malaysia is seen to grow at 5.4 percent, driven by a recovery in exports and private-sector investment.

The Vietnamese economy although slight slowdown is predicted to still grow a robust 8.0 percent in 2006.