MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines may post narrower balance of payments deficits for the next two years than earlier expected, although elevated fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and uneven global growth are still seen weighing on the country’s external position, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said.
In its latest projections, the BSP said the balance of payments (BOP) — a broad record of the country’s transactions with the rest of the world — would remain in deficit through 2027.
A deficit means more dollars are flowing out of the economy than coming in, which can add pressure on the peso and the country’s foreign exchange buffers.
Based on BSP data, the overall BOP deficit is now projected to hit $9.2 billion this year, equivalent to 1.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). This is narrower than the $10.7-billion deficit, or 2.1 percent of GDP, projected in the second quarter.
For 2027, the BSP also lowered its BOP deficit forecast to $8.5 billion, or 1.6 percent of GDP, from the previous projection of $11 billion or 2.1 percent of GDP.
“These deficits highlight the shock from elevated oil and commodity prices, which continue to weigh on the country’s external position,” the central bank said.
On the other hand, BSP raised its current account deficit projection for 2026. The current account tracks the flow of goods, services and income between the Philippines and the rest of the world.
The current account deficit is now seen posting a deficit of $19.1 billion or 3.8 percent of GDP this year. This is wider than the $18-billion deficit, or 3.6 percent of GDP, forecast in the second quarter.
For 2027, however, the BSP trimmed its forecast to $19.4 billion, equivalent to 3.6 percent of GDP, from the previous estimate of $19.7 billion or 3.7 percent of GDP.
Goods exports are now expected to reach $67.2 billion this year, higher than the previous forecast of $65.3 billion. For 2027, goods exports are projected at $69.9 billion, also above the earlier forecast of $67.9 billion.
Goods imports, however, were also revised upward for 2026 to $139.7 billion from $135.3 billion. For next year, goods imports are now seen reaching $143.9 billion, higher than the previous forecast of $142 billion.
The trade deficit in goods and services is now projected at $58.6 billion this year, wider than the $56.7-billion gap seen in the second quarter. For 2027, the trade deficit is expected to narrow to $60.3 billion from the earlier forecast of $61.7 billion.
Services exports were also revised upward to $53.6 billion this year and to $55.7 billion in 2027.
Business process outsourcing revenues are projected to reach $34.5 billion this year, slightly higher than the earlier forecast of $34.3 billion. For 2027, BPO revenues are now seen at $35.5 billion from $35.3 billion previously.
The BSP kept its cash remittance forecasts unchanged at $36.6 billion this year and $37.7 billion in 2027. Growth is still projected at 2.7 percent for 2026 and three percent for 2027.
Meanwhile, the BSP kept its gross international reserves forecasts unchanged at $104 billion for 2026 and $105 billion for 2027.
The central bank said reserves are expected to remain above $100 billion in both years, “serving as a critical buffer against external shocks.”