We just successfully hosted the recent ASEAN Leaders meeting in Cebu and the government is basking in the glow of that successful event. However, the government must immediately get back to work in dealing with the consequences of the continuing conflict in the Middle East and its effect not only on fuel, but also on fertilizer cost that is seriously affecting food production worldwide.
In an Asian Development Bank blog written last week by Qingfeng Zhang, senior director of the Agriculture, Food, Nature and Rural Development Sector Office of the ADB, he warned that “Asia and the Pacific now face a different kind of shock to food security as the conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel and fertilizer costs rather than cutting global grain supplies.”
The latest Middle East crisis, he said, “is reshaping global food security, but mainly through different channels than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While this directly disrupted grain and fertilizer exports, today’s shock is driven primarily by shipping disruptions and higher energy and fertilizer prices.”
Instead of an immediate spike in food prices, he said, the effect “is a broad, system-wide shock rippling through interconnected markets and squeezing the food system. For Asia and the Pacific, heavily reliant on imported energy and fertilizers, the implications are significant.”
The Strait of Hormuz, he pointed out, handles about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a large share of fertilizer exports, including more than a third of global urea exports. Disruptions there are driving up fuel, fertilizer, freight and insurance costs.
These increases, he emphasized, are feeding into higher production, local transport and retail food costs, even though global food supplies and stocks remain relatively stable. More worrying, he cited, are higher energy and fertilizer prices today that influence farmers’ decisions about how much to plant and how much input to apply. If high costs persist, he said, reduced fertilizer use this season may mean lower yields next harvest.
As global costs rise, pressures transmit quickly, he said, from farms to markets to households. For import-dependent countries such as Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, the risks are acute. Larger economies—including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines and Vietnam—face fiscal pressures from fuel and fertilizer subsidies, alongside rising food prices.
The impact is system-wide, he said, with farmers struggling to make profits as costs rise faster than farmgate prices, leading to lower investment in inputs. Agribusinesses need more working capital. Higher prices in shops reduce household spending power, leading to poorer diets, adding to the impact of recent shocks that have pushed millions more people into hunger, many of them in Asia and the Pacific.
Fertilizer, he reiterated, is at the center of this crisis—but today’s challenge is less about availability and more about whether farmers can afford and obtain it. Fertilizer production, he explained, uses a lot of energy. As energy prices rise, so do fertilizer costs. Higher freight and insurance costs further add to the price farmers pay, creating a difficult trade-off: apply less fertilizer and lower crop yields, or pay more and earn less. Often the result is reduced input use. Even modest reductions in fertilizer application can lead to significant declines in crop yields.
In Thailand, Vietnam and parts of Indonesia, stagnant paddy prices amid surging fertilizer and fuel costs are reducing input use and discouraging planting.
In the Philippines, the government warns rice output could fall between 20 and 50 percent without intervention.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the first quarter crop production, which accounts for nearly 56 percent of total output, fell by 2.4 percent to P243.62 billion, weighed down by a drop in rice production. Palay output declined by 6.26 percent to 4.4 million metric tons, reflecting the lingering impact of typhoons that hit late in 2025, as well as damaged irrigation systems.
Key lessons from past crises remain relevant, Zhang said, and these include “acting early, particularly ahead of planting seasons; coordinating responses, avoiding export restrictions and fragmented measures, address system linkages, recognizing the interdependence of food, energy and fertilizer markets.”
Countries that acted quickly—securing inputs, keeping trade open and protecting vulnerable populations—generally coped better, he said, as these principles are critical today as the shock unfolds more gradually but risks becoming entrenched.
Short-term priorities, he stressed are clear: sustain production and protect the most vulnerable. This includes ensuring access to fertilizers through coordinated procurement and financing, supporting agricultural credit and supply chains and providing financial support so countries can import essential products.
Acting ahead of planting seasons, he added, is essential to prevent a cost shock from becoming a production shock.
Longer term, he said, affected countries must reduce underlying weaknesses that leave them repeatedly exposed to shocks. This includes diversifying fertilizer suppliers, improving how farmers use fertilizer and strengthening regional trade and logistics systems.
Digital technologies and innovative financing, he said, will also play a critical role in enhancing resilience and scaling solutions.
The crisis, he said, underscores the need to shift toward regenerative, sustainable agriculture that reduces reliance on imported chemicals. Practices such as integrated soil fertility management, use of biological inputs and agroecological pest control can cut input demand while sustaining yields. By restoring soil health, enhancing water retention and boosting biodiversity, these approaches also strengthen resilience to shocks.
While the current shock has not yet triggered a global food crisis, Zhang said, it carries the risk of more persistent pressures, particularly if fertilizer costs affect production. With coordinated action and a systems approach, however, he said, “this crisis can be managed. More importantly, it can serve as a catalyst to accelerate the transition toward more resilient, inclusive and sustainable food systems across the region. #