MANILA, Philippines — The country’s palay output this quarter may grow by 2.8 percent year-on-year to over 7.4 million metric tons (MT) on the back of higher planted area, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.
In its latest production estimate as of Nov. 1, the PSA projected that palay output from October to December would reach 7.44 million MT from 7.24 million MT in the same period last year.
“On the other hand, the updated estimate of palay production for the period October to December as of Nov. 1 reflected a decrease of 2.3 percent from its estimate of 7.61 million MT as of Oct. 1,” the PSA said.
The PSA said the estimated harvest area based on standing crop for the fourth quarter would expand by 2.8 percent to 1.8 million hectares from 1.75 million hectares in the same period last year.
At least 988,950 hectares or more than half of the total standing crop have been harvested as of Nov. 1, according to the PSA.
“This translates to palay output of 4.18 million metric tons,” the PSA said.
“Of the total area of 811,300 hectares of standing palay yet to be harvested as of Nov. 1, 3.5 percent were at the vegetative stage, 30.4 percent at the reproductive stage and 66.1 percent at the maturing stage,” the PSA added.
The PSA estimated that the average palay yield in the fourth quarter would remain at 4.13 MT per hectare, the same level recorded in the same period last year.
In the third quarter, the country’s palay output continued to contract for the third straight quarter, falling by 12 percent on an annual basis as planted area shrank, worsened by ill effects of weather disturbances.
The PSA earlier reported that palay production in the third quarter settled at 3.33 million MT, about 470,000 MT lower than the 3.8 million MT in the same period last year.
Historical PSA data showed the third quarter palay output was the lowest production in five years for the July-to-September period or since the 3.05 million MT recorded volume in 2020.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) has already revised downward its full-year palay production forecast multiple times as a result of the damage caused by the prolonged dry spell and typhoons.
The DA is now expecting palay production this year to settle at 19.3 million MT, about 3.8 percent lower than last year’s record harvest of 20.06 million MT.
The DA’s latest palay or unmilled rice production forecast could be the lowest output level since 2020 when the country harvested 19.29 million MT.