MANILA, Philippines — The country’s palay production this year could fall to a four-year low after rice farms were battered by a series of typhoons, before they could even recover from the ill effects of the El Niño phenomenon.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) has further slashed its palay output projection this year to 19.41 million metric tons (MT), nearly a million MT lower than its previous estimate of 20.4 million MT.
The latest production forecast is even 6.68 percent lower than the department’s initial projection for the year of 20.8 million MT.
The DA’s latest palay or unmilled rice production forecast could be the lowest output level since 2020 when the country harvested 19.294 million MT.
On an annual basis, the full-year projected palay output is 3.24 percent lower than last year’s record-high harvest of 20.06 million MT.
Despite the foreseen decline in domestic palay output, the DA assures the public that the country would have sufficient rice supply until the end of the year with retail prices remaining stable.
Based on its latest estimates, the country would end the year with a carryover supply of 3.83 million MT buoyed by imported stocks, enough to cover nationwide consumption for about 100 days, according to the DA.
“This projection incorporates updated rice stock data, actual import arrivals, and historical trends, ensuring the country’s rice needs are met despite the production drop,” Agriculture Undersecretary Christopher Morales said.
Morales said the DA projects at least 358,000 MT of palay production loss in the fourth quarter based on historical damages and actual farming risks.
“The recent cut in tariff rates further incentivized imports, allowing for greater access to global rice markets and mitigating potential shortages,” Morales said.
The country’s palay output in the first half contracted by 5.5 percent to 8.53 million MT from 9.026 million MT due to lower farm yield as some farmers delayed planting amid threats brought about by the El Niño phenomenon.
The DA recorded close to 400,000 MT of production losses in the rice sector in the first half because of hotter and drier weather conditions as well as due to typhoons and related weather disturbances.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) earlier projected that palay production in the third quarter could fall by 12 percent on an annual basis to below 3.4 million MT due to crop damages caused by typhoons and smaller planted areas.
“The decrease in production would have been higher were it not for higher production yield due to better seeds, farm equipment and other support provided through the Rice Fund under the Rice Tariffication Law and National Rice Program,” the DA said in response to the PSA’s third quarter palay output estimates.
If the forecast of the PSA for the third quarter palay output materializes, the country’s palay production from January to September would reach at least 11.88 million MT, which is 7.4 percent lower than the 12.824 million MT recorded volume during the same nine-month period.
Local rice prices in Metro Manila markets remained stable as of Oct. 21 with regular-milled varieties ranging from P41 to P50 per kilo while well-milled ones cost P44 to P54 per kilo, based on DA price monitoring report.