How sustainable is our good news?

People are coming around to believe that something good is happening in our country, somehow. But people know better than to jump up with joy. There is this fear within us it could all be a dream… a mirage and reality will sooner than later bring us back down to earth.

The stock market is seemingly unstoppable. It corrects for a day or two but it soon resumes its upward trajectory. I am sure my good friend, John Mangun, a stock market guru and columnist gets asked the same question all the time. In his latest column, he gave this testy response: “Of course, the stock market is in a bubble. So what?”

John went on to write that “one experienced trader, Oliver, said this to me: ‘I might be buying a bubble but I want to be in for the ride.’ That is sensible investing… Forget the bubble. Enjoy the ride until it ends.”

So now the question is… when will it end? If you ask the stock market analysts they will say the end is not yet in sight… it is not too late to still enter the market.

The analysts are probably right. But I seriously wonder how sustainable this good news about our market and about all the positive sentiment we are getting about our economy. Not only do I worry about our propensity to shoot ourselves at the foot at the most hopeful time (Sabah?), there is also this surrealistic quality to our good news today.

First of all, it seems the good news is all tied up to one person — P-Noy. Secondly, it is also tied up to our strong consumer market fueled by OFW remittances. Neither of these two factors gives me comfort about sustainability.

I have read a lot of the very positive reviews we have been getting lately and it seems to me that most, if not all, are premised on P-Noy and his Daang Matuwid. I get the impression that the foreign analysts can’t get enough from the novelty of having a Filipino President who is actually honest.

The analysts ignore the fact that trying to bring that honesty down to the rest of government is a tough job. I don’t see good governance really kicking in any time soon. Just look at the continued failure of Customs to curb smuggling. Or what looks like PNP involvement in jueteng that resulted in the Atimonan massacre.

I worry that our good news is being tied to one man who is also just human. He may slip in the bathroom one day and hit his head hard in the cement tiles before his term is over and where will we be? Will the analysts start issuing new reviews that say they are putting their euphoric prognosis of our future on hold because P-Noy is no longer there to pursue his Daang Matuwid?

Take a close look at what the analysts are saying and you will notice that they are only ready to be bullish up to 2016. Some of them say they hope the successor will continue to pursue P-Noy’s Daang Matuwid. That’s a diplomatic way of saying they may change their minds.

More seriously, some analysts say off the record that they do not see a successor in the horizon with the same good governance credentials as P-Noy. Neither could I, in all honesty.

If the political pundits are to be believed, the next President will either be Jojo Binay, Bong Revilla or BongBong Marcos. I know… the thought is enough for those still young enough to have a future to make a beeline for an immigrant’s visa in some foreign safe haven.

If our choices are just those three, I am inclined to go with Jojo not just because he is a UP Prep alumnus as I am but because he has proven himself well in the area of governing with efficiency and producing good results. Is there a chance Jojo could be a good President?

I recently asked a friend that question because he has had a good exposure to Jojo in recent times. Even if we assume for argument’s sake that all the rumors about Jojo’s condo units and other city hall activities are true (not to say they are), is Jojo willing to turn his back on everything and just dedicate the last chapter of his life to pure and simple legacy building for his name and the country’s good?

The very honest answer I got was “I don’t know”. It was explained that the system is so bad that even with the best of intentions anyone who gets political power becomes a captive of the system. There are political debts to pay. Power also begets the desire for more power. Amassing power and wealth is a primal urge that only the most unworldly of monks can resist.

The fact that Jojo the former MABINI human rights lawyer aligned himself with Erap and Enrile, two of the most visible symbols of what is wrong with Philippine politics MABINI lawyers fought in the old days should give a good indication of Jojo’s political instincts. But couldn’t Jojo after he is elected President, renege on political alliances that’s necessary to win power for the greater good of the country? It could happen… miracles do happen.

The other reason why I worry about the sustainability of our good news is the dependence of the economy on OFW remittances. The positive sentiment of investors is grounded on the very large consumer buying power we have, thanks to OFW remittances.

But as many economists have pointed out, this bit of good news, thanks to our hardworking countrymen abroad, may also bring serious problems to our economy. They warn about the dangers of the Dutch disease. Even now, the strong inflow of dollars is making the peso too strong for the good of local industries. It is destroying what little competitiveness we have in the global market.

So, how sustainable is our good news? The best answer is… who really knows for sure! Our good news is largely based on sentiment and sentiment can be fleeting.

Positive sentiment could vanish even within P-Noy’s watch if it is clear his infra projects such as airports to bring in the tourists and roads to facilitate business growth are stalled. Daang Matuwid driving the good news has a shorter shelf life than the remaining years of P-Noy’s term.

Until we are able to repair our economy to produce enough domestic jobs to drastically cut the number of unemployed and underemployed, any economic growth we see remains meaningless to most Filipinos… and as such, unsustainable.

In the short term, take the advice of John Mangun and just ride with the positive sentiment. Making a few bucks now shouldn’t stop us from doing what we can to make the good news about our country finally sustainable. But always be very careful not to bet your last peso because the positive sentiment can turn bad without even a moment’s notice.

Smart’s LTE

Technology, if it works, can be really great. I found this out again the other weekend. I was on my way to Tagaytay when my editor texted to say that my deadline was being advanced by a day.

That should normally not be a problem but this time, I was not sure. I brought my i-pad but I haven’t tried writing a column from scratch using it.

And what about an internet connection? I don’t like working in internet cafes or even business centers. I want to work in the quiet privacy of my room.

Then it occurred to me as I looked at my new Smart i-Phone 5 that I was getting top-of-the-line LTE signal. I am not enough of a tekkie to know the full potential of my i-Phone but my associate Rosan Cruz once taught me how to use my i-Phone as a private hotspot.

I fixed the settings on my i-Phone, did the same for my i-Pad so it can access the Smart LTE via the i-Phone, got my visiting daughter to set up the Bluetooth connection of my i-Pad to the keyboard she gave me for Christmas and I was all set to meet my advanced deadline.

I worked for a couple of hours and e-mailed the finished column to my editor over 12 hours before the advanced deadline. I love technology when it works. I am also happy I shifted mobile broadband provider… and it is not even costing me more than my old one… same unli rate.

Celibacy

Jay Leno: “The ex-Pope said that at age 85 he cannot physically go on. Meanwhile, Hugh Hefner is going to be 87 and he just married a 26-year-old.

“So much for that celibate lifestyle!”

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco