MANILA, Philippines - Economic growth prospects are stronger for member-countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) including the Philippines than for emerging Asian countries led by China and India, a quarterly survey conducted by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed.
In its Quarterly Economic Outlook the OECD said that leading and coincident indicators for ASEAN economies point towards steady growth based on sound exports and strong demand supported by improved business sentiment.
“Overall, growth prospects are stronger on average for the ASEAN economies than for Emerging Asia area including China and India,” the OECD said.
Coincident indicators are selected mainly by economic relevance and statistical fitness to quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) while leading indicators are created based on the coincident indicators and the lead time in general is five months to six months.
Leading indicators of the Philippines hit 103.3 points while coincident indicators reached 103.9 points, indicating a continued economic expansion.
“Most indicators suggested sound recovery. Strong sales and business sentiment support these trends,” OECD stressed.
Indonesia had a leading indicator of 100.9 points and a coincident indicator of 102.5 points followed by Malaysia’s leading indicator of 101.1 points and coincident indicator of 104.6 points. Singapore had a leading indicator of 101.1 points and a coincident indicator of 101 points while Thailand had a leading indicator of 102.8 points and a coincident indicator of 102.1 points.
Except for the Philippines, the leading indicator of other Southeast Asian countries experienced a downturn in the current quarter from the previous quarter.
The Philippines recorded a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 7.9 percent in the first half of the year from 1.2 percent in the same period last year. The country’s GDP grew by 7.9 percent in the second quarter of the year after expanding by 7.8 percent in the first quarter.
Economic managers through the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) upgraded the country’s GDP growth forecast last July to five percent to six percent instead of 2.6 percent to 3.6 percent this year.
OECD stated that growth in many ASEAN countries would likely slowdown in the next quarter.
“However, the leading indicators suggest that growth in many ASEAN countries, while still robust, may be weakening in the next quarter,” it added.
It cited the continued signs of slowing of the Chinese economy constitute a negative factor for the outlook for ASEAN economies.