Agriculture Secretary Luis Lorenzo Jr.’s optimism is anchored on the strong performance of the grains subsector in the first quarter.
"We expect that the growth trend in the first quarter can be sustained throughout the year, especially if no major weather disturbances disrupt production. Thus, we are sticking to our growth targets," said Lorenzo.
Preliminary data by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) show that production of rice, the country’s main staple, increased 9.1 percent to 3.31 million metric tons (MT) in the first quarter, from 3.03 millon MT during the same period last year.
At the same time, corn production went up 12.8 percent to 1.526 million MT from 1.353 million MT.
Lorenzo said the gains were achieved despite a dry spell in some of the country’s rice-producing regions.
He attributed the gains to a three percent rise in palay harvest area – from 959, 219 hectares in 2003 to 988,354 hectares this year, and a six-percent increase in average yield to 3.35 MT per hectare, from the previous year’s yield of 3.16 percent.
For corn, the hectarage went up 5.7 percent to 634,602 hectares from 600,378 hectares while the yield per hectare improved by 6.7 percent to 2.4 MT from 2.25 MT in 2003.
"We’re improving our crop productivity due to farmers’ increasing use of hybrid and certified rice seed varieties, proper fertilizer and other input application," Lorenzo said.
Agriculture Assistant Secretary Segfredo Serrano Jr. had said the sector’s growth forecast is consistent with the government’s medium-term development program. "We don’t expect to have dramatic leaps in the sector’s growth because the department’s programs are in line with the national government’s medium-term growth forecast and for this year, the growth range of three to four percent is fairly realistic and achievable," said Serrano.
Agriculture analysts said that aside from favorable weather, the bigger factor would be the required budgetary support to keep critical interventions possible.
Congress appropriated only P15.4 billion for the DA in 2004. This is 26 percent lower than the proposed budget of P20.9 billion. This year’s budget is also 35 percent lower than what the Agricultural Fisheries and Modernization Act (AFMA) provides for, and eight percent lower than the 2003 allocation.
Analysts said the 2004 DA budget is its lowest in real terms if one takes into account inflation.
"It will be a difficult year for the agriculture sector. The budgetary concerns will definitely affect the department’s capability to inject interventions when necessary, the resources are simply not enough," said a former DA top official.
The agriculture sector which comprises a fifth of the country’s total economic output, sailed through unfavorable weather last year, slowing growth to just 3.77 percent from the 4.12 percent growth in 2002.