The forecast was announced by Agriculture Assistant Secretary for Policy and Planning Segfredo Serrano during a forum organized by the Philippine Agricultural Journalists (PAJ) at the Paseo Restaurant yesterday.
Serrano said paddy production for the first six months rose 2.3 percent from 5.4 million metric tons in 2000 to 5.6 million metric tons this year. He attributed the growth to the increase in the second quarter (April to June) output of 6.5 percent.
Production for the third quarter of 2001 is expected to hit 2.36 million metric tons, or one percent lower than the 2000 level of 2.41 million metric tons. The projected drop is attributed to floods caused by the storm that delayed planting in some areas.
Output for the fourth quarter is forecast to increase by 4.5 percent from 4.53 million metric tons in 2000 to 4.74 million metric tons this year because of the movement of the harvest for the third quarter and partly because of the favorable weather anticipated by farmers, Serrano said.
Meanwhile, corn output for the first semester is expected to decline by one percent despite an increase of 6.8 percent in the first quarter output. This was due to a 9.2-percent drop in the second quarter production resulting from an 8.5-percent contraction in the area harvested.
Serrano said while some areas experienced relatively large volumes of rainfall during the period, many corn areas in Mindanao did not have sufficient water for planting.
As a result, production for the first semester of 2001 is down by 0.4 percent although production for the third quarter is expected to reach 1.6 million tons, or 1.1 percent higher than last year’s output.
Harvest for the fourth quarter is expected to slightly decline by 0.8 percent owing to a contraction in areas to be harvested due to a shift in corn areas to other crops such as palay, cassava and vegetables.
On the rice supply situation, Serrano said the actual ending stock as of July 1, 2001 is at 2.12 million metric tons or good for 88 days based on a beginning stock of 1.63 million metric tons, with production of about 8.14 million metric tons, imports of 1.06 million metric tons against a usage of 8.7 million metric tons.
For corn, supply for crop year 2000-2001 reached 5.79 million metric tons, given a production of 4.49 million metric tons, imports of 106,000 tons and 997,000 tons of corn substitutes. Total consumption/usage is at 5.59 million metric tons, leaving an ending stock as of June 30, 2001 at 195,000 tons.