SRA Administrator Nicolas Alsonso said in an interview "it is still too early to establish a trend in sugar production" since sugar producers are just starting to harvest.
Alonso was reacting to a report of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) that the country has lowered its forecast for the 2000-2001 crop year to 1.65 million MT from 1.7 million MT.
"Such talk at this point is purely speculative and premature. How could we have lowered our forecast when at this point, not even 15 percent of total expected are planted to sugar has been harvested," Alonso said, adding that at least 15 percent of total sugar hectarage should be harvested to determine if production targets are in range.
In Negros Occidental alone which accounts for 50 percent of sugar production, nine out 12 sugar millers are just starting to harvest, while Luzon and Mindanao will also start to harvest shortly.
Those which have reportedly scheduled harvesting and milling are Victorias Milling Corp., Hawaiian Philippine Co., First Farmers Milling Corp. Central Azucarera de Carlota, Binalbagan-Isabela Sugar Co. Inc. and Southern Negros Development Co.
"It is going to take at least three weeks before a trend could be established," Alonso said.
The USDA report stated that the country’s 2000-2001 sugar crop was lowered because while there were no La Niña weather patterns in August this year, there were instances of heavy rain in Negros.
The report added while prospects for 2000-2001 are boosted by pre-harvest weather patterns, it is expected that there will not be enough days of favorable or warm weather to greatly improve conditions over the last season.
Aside from this, the lack of profitability in the last three sugar seasons prevented sugar farmers from maximizing input to improved yields.The reduction in the forecast was also based on observations that area harvested will not be any higher than the previous year.