Spurs favored but NY unfazed

San Antonio is the -205 favorite to beat New York in the NBA Finals which start at the Spurs’ homecourt Frost Bank Center this morning (Manila time). The Knicks are the +170 underdog, meaning a wager of $100 will bring in $170 compared to a bet of $205 collecting $100. The odds were initially -220 for San Antonio and +180 for New York but the numbers narrowed as the series got closer to the opener. For Game 1, the Spurs’ winning spread is 4.5 points.

San Antonio’s home record in the playoffs is 6-3, losing once each in the Portland, Minnesota and Oklahoma City series. New York’s road record is 6-1, dropping Game 3 by one in the Atlanta series that went six. Entering Game 1 of the Finals, the Knicks are coming off nine days of rest or since Game 4 of the Cleveland series while the Spurs’ recovery is five days less or since Game 7 of the OKC series. 

New York is on an 11-game win streak, counting the last three outings against Atlanta and the 4-0 sweeps over Philadelphia and the Cavs. The Knicks’ playoff record is 12-2. In their 12 wins, they’ve held opponents to an average of 99.3 points but in their two losses, they gave up an average of 108. The disparity shows coach Mike Brown’s focus on defense as his winning formula. The Spurs, on the other hand, are 12-6 in the playoffs. In their 12 wins, they hit at a 118.8 clip and in their six setbacks, they averaged 108.2. The difference indicates coach Mitch Johnson’s offensive orientation.

In the regular season, San Antonio’s record was 62-20 while New York’s slate was 53-29.  With the homecourt advantage, the Spurs get to host Game 7 if necessary under the 2-2-1-1-1 format. Seven Spurs averaged in double figure points in the regular season, showcasing balanced firepower starting with Victor Wembanyama (25) and ending with Julian Champagnie (11.1). Fil-Am rookie Dylan Harper chipped in at 11.8. New York had six players averaging in twin digit points, led by Jalen Brunson (26) and ending with Josh Hart (12) and Miles McBride (12). Seven-foot Mitchell Robinson, in his eighth straight season with the Knicks, is Brown’s X-factor as he’s expected to come off the bench to back up Karl Anthony Towns in defending Wemby. OG Anunoby, Hart, Mikal Bridges, Brunson and KAT provide physical defense as starters. A key reserve is Landry Shamet, a 3-and-D specialist who caught fire with successive triples in the Cleveland sweep.

San Antonio and New York split their two encounters in the regular season but were both short-handed. In the Spurs’ 134-132 win, Devin Vassell and Hart sat out while in the Knicks’ 114-89 romp, Jordan Clarkson didn’t play. The numbers in the two contests exemplify the contrast in coaching styles. The Spurs piled up 134 points in the first meeting but were held to 89 in the second. In the Finals, San Antonio will run to the roar while New York will pressure to force turnovers. Brunson, Bridges and Hart were on the US team that placed fourth at the 2023 FIBA World Cup and they’ve been together since their Villanova days so their defensive chemistry is a premium. Wemby is supported by Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, Vassell, Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Harper and Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson. Health is wealth in the Finals and an intact roster will go a long way in deciding which team is left standing in the end.