The core understanding of a growing number of Filipinos about the RP-US Mutual Defense Treaty, muddled no doubt by heightening tensions in the South China Sea, is fundamentally wrong. And it does not help that a self-appointed leading light in "protecting" Philippine interests in the hotly-contested area is himself a leading cause of the confusion between logical thinking and false expectations.
As a former justice of the Supreme Court, Antonio Carpio should have been the first to hold back on unnecessarily dangerous and ridiculous statements in reaction to the latest Chinese bullying --aiming a laser beam at a Philippine Coast Guard vessel on patrol at Ayungin Shoal. Instead Carpio lost no time commenting, and never mind the validity of his comments.
In so many words, Carpio said that because the Chinese used a military grade laser in the incident, it then can be considered an attack and thus the Philippines can invoke the terms of the treaty (an attack on one is an attack on the other) it has had with the US since 1951. He sounded like he was asking the US to go to war with China in defense of the Philippines.
But that is not likely to happen. Much as the US loathes China, it does not necessarily follow it will go to war against that country just because it "lased" the Philippines, its treaty commitments to the latter notwithstanding. War is not as easy as spelling out its three letters. America is sapped by war, having been in armed conflict for much of its national life.
Abandoning its 20-year war occupation of Afghanistan in ignominious defeat in 2021, almost in the same manner that it skedaddled Vietnam in 1975, also after 20 years of conflict, the US no longer has the legs to put boots on the ground in Ukraine in yet another war, this time with Russia. In this war with Russia, the US decided to wage it by proxy.
The indications are that if the US goes to war with China, it will also be by proxy, with the Philippines being thrust into that hapless role of being the American pawn. But a war with China will not come if the war with Russia over Ukraine remains unresolved. The prospects of being at war at the same time with Russia and China are too dire, even for the US.
Besides, going back to China's "lasing" of a Philippine ship, the incident is too puny in the larger geopolitical scheme of things to start a major war the US is not inclined to wage at this time. Moreover, if I were to get inside the head of the Americans, I would probably ask what the Philippines itself has done about the incident other than bitch and cry.
If I were the US, I would most probably balk at committing myself to something as serious as a war for a country that has not even lifted a finger in its own defense. To be sure, the Philippines is dead meat compared to China. But if we have to involve the US in our hapless lot, the least we can do is show our own willingness to sacrifice.
I can understand the Philippine reluctance to make that sacrifice. We know we will lose far more than we can gain. But that is the Filipino in me. If I were an American, my perspectives would be entirely different. And because there is nothing in English to capture its essence, I would ask an interpreter to tell Carpio, in big bold letters: "ANO KA, SINUSWERTE?"