On June 21, 2021 the United Kingdom will host the G-7 summit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will preside over the meeting of the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States of America. Since 1976 the Group of Seven holds an annual gathering of leaders of industrialized democracies representing 40% of global Gross Domestic Product and 10 % of the world’s population. They discuss pervasive and crosscutting issues like biodiversity, climate, gender inequality, energy, security, disarmament, and whatever the host puts on the agenda.
Johnson has the intention to focus on the Indo-Pacific inviting three more heads of state, namely Australia’s Scott Morrison, South Korea’s Moon Jae-in, and India’s Narendra Modi. President Rodrigo Duterte of the Republic of the Philippines was not included. This nation, however, is suffering the most from China’s invasion into its Exclusive Economic Zone.
Of course Johnson would want to invite also Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen but provoking the ire of Xi Jinping is too delicate an action at present. However, the China aggression will take the center stage in the discussions. Much will depend on the stance and contribution of President Joe Biden, for the US is the only power that can deter the China Communist Party from invading and incorporating Taiwan into China.
Johnson is visiting India next month. He will increase his 180 Trident nuclear warhead arsenal to 260 in response to Chinese threats. And he will send the new airplane carrier Elizabeth II into the Pacific.
Lloyd Austin and Anthony Blinken just visited Japan and South Korea. Then today March 18, in Alaska, Blinken and Sullivan met the Chinese politburo members Wang Yi and Yang Jiechi. Expected is a frosty atmosphere in the two-days, three times, three-hour debates. President Biden ordered the Americans to speak up from a position of strength. They will urge China to stop raiding the Japanese Senkaku Islands and to stop expanding their soft power and bellicosity globally. All the adverse topics will be on the agenda: Taiwan, Uighur genocide, Mongolia, Hong Kong, cyber-attacks, and of course the South China Sea. Their aim of negotiations is iron clad: No giving-in to Chinese expectations and coercions. Because tough action is the only language that impresses Communist regimes.
That was seen in 1962 when Nikita Khrushchev had stationed Soviet SS-20 missiles on Cuba. Then President John F. Kennedy promised unmistakably to sink any Soviet ship that tried to get to Cuba. He ordered the US Navy to circle the island. The blockade lasted from October 14 to 27, 1962. Khrushchev withdrew the missiles.
Why not do the same in the South China Sea? A clearly formulated statement tells Xi that any vessel and airplane attempting to land on the artificial islands in Chinese occupied seas will be sunk or shot down. The allies have more than enough warships to circle in the UNCLOS-defined international waters cutting off the unlawfully militarized structures. Xi will lose face but he will yield.
Erich Wannemacher
Lapu-Lapu City