Barangay Ginebra is a win away from advancing to the PBA Governors’ Cup Finals but San Miguel Beer isn’t expected to escort coach Tim Cone’s charges to the Last Dance without a fight. Game Six is set at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight with Ginebra holding a 3-2 series lead and San Miguel hoping to survive two straight do-or-die tussles to beat the Barangay to the finish line.
A sellout crowd of 10,039 packed the Ynares Center in Antipolo for Game Five last Friday and if that’s an indication, the Big Dome will be standing-room-only for Game Six. TNT closed out the other semifinal series, 4-1 over Rain or Shine, so just one game is scheduled tonight.
If the winning trend persists, San Miguel should take Game Six. Since the start of the series, Ginebra has won the odd games and San Miguel, the even. It isn’t luck that determines the trend, it’s the theory that in a series, the team that loses first is able to adjust to win the rematch. But in a battle of wits, Cone packs a lot more championship experience than coach Jorge Gallent and in a potential closer, he won’t let the chance to bury San Miguel outright go by.
In Game Four, Justin Brownlee erupted for 49 points yet Ginebra lost, 131-121. It wasn’t the first time this conference that a player went off for over 40 points and his team lost. Phoenix’ Brandone Francis shot 45 against Blackwater and 48 against San Miguel but the Fuel Masters were beaten in both contests. NLEX’ DeQuan Jones fired 49 against Rain or Shine but couldn’t deliver the win.
For Ginebra, the lesson in Game Five was defense will beat San Miguel, not offense. San Miguel is the league’s No. 1 offensive team and Ginebra will never win in a gunslinging duel. In San Miguel’s two semifinal wins, the Beermen averaged 131 points. In Ginebra’s two semifinal wins before Game Five, the Barangay held San Miguel to an average of 99.5. The stats clearly show that in a shootout, Ginebra has little or no chance to outscore San Miguel. So defense is the key to break down the Beermen.
In Game Five, Brownlee took only 11 field goal attempts when he averaged 24.8 the first four outings. He finished with 18 points and was Ginebra’s third leading scorer after RJ Abarrientos (28) and Scottie Thompson (22). More than Brownlee’s points, he shone brightly with nine rebounds and seven assists. All 13 players whom Cone sent in scored, displaying a healthy distribution of wealth. Abarrientos was the star of the show, registering a hefty +37 in efficiency. Role player Ralph Cu recorded a +32 with four points, six rebounds and seven assists. Curiously, both RJ and Cu came off the bench. Ginebra’s assist-to-turnover ratio was a robust 5.2:1 (31 assists to six turnovers) compared to San Miguel’s 0.79:1 (15 assists to 19 turnovers). The biggest stat was Ginebra held San Miguel to a series-low 92 points on .442 field goal shooting. Field goal percentage is the only stat that has been the determining factor in winning or losing every game in the series. Cone proved that Ginebra isn’t a one-man show and the Barangay will thrive not by JB alone.
It’s San Miguel’s turn to adjust in Game Six and expect June Mar Fajardo, EJ Anosike and CJ Perez to come out with guns blazing. Gallent may tweak his first five if Jericho Cruz isn’t 100 percent and Terrence Romeo could get the call to start. Whatever happens, the fans are in for a big treat tonight.