NCAA: Will big guns pull away early?

The NCAA opens its 86th season at the Araneta Coliseum today, and as usual, a star-studded opening will greet the lunchtime television audience. Host and defending men’s basketball champion San Sebastian College has prepared a big celebration to usher in the college basketball season, and the nine-teams league has retooled for battle. In fact, the league has reworked the schedule to allow for typhoon postponements, and will end some time in October.

The focus, of course, will be on the defending champion Golden Stags, who are virtually intact save for leading scorer Jimbo Aquino. Aquino, whose average hovered around the 20-point mark, was the focal point of their offense. But given their outstanding showing in the Fil-Oil pre-season tournament, head coach Ato Agutsin seems pleased with how things are turning out.

“The players themselves said we should stop looking for Jimbo on offense, because he won’t be there,” said the 1992 PBA Most Valuable Player. “Our assists have gone up to about 22 per game, and we’re moving the ball around very well.”

Mythical Team member Calvin Abueva is the option at the high post, and is this season’s target for the other team’s centers and forwards. Abueva came out of nowhere, a physically mature rookie, to be one of two or three players to average in a double double, and was a dominant force in the finals against three-time champion San Beda. But to be fair, San Sebastian has plenty of weapons at its disposal, and a fully-loaded backcourt. The Stags boast of a completely veteran lineup, with guards Raymond Maconocido, Pamboy Raymundo and Anthony del Rio providing different looks in the backcourt. San Sebastain won’t be invincible, but they will be very tough.

The big question mark this season will be how quickly the new recruits of Frankie Lim’s San Beda College will fit in. Truthfully, they lost a lot with the departure of Bam Gamalinda, Jay-R Taganas and JR Tecson. The three teamed up with holdover and oft-injured guard Borgie Hermida to win the Adidas Asian Streetball title in 2005, and helped the Red Lions win three straight titles from 2006-2008. The other loss was Fil-Am Ginno Soliman, who was dropped in favor of another guard in the rotation despite a good showing last season. He is now serving out his residency with UST. Although last year was a disappointment, the monkey’s off the Red LIons’ backs.

Of course, the main focus will be 6-8 Mythical Team member Su Daniel, who has been improving since last year, his first full season in NCAA play. Daniel was bullied by the Stags in the final, and has had to address that issue over the summer. His toughness and focus will be the center of attention, pun not intended. Last year, this writer caught a glimpse of the Fil-Australian Semerad brothers, Anthony and David, muscular and rugged frontliners who have developed a decent perimeter game and better handle of the basketball. San Beda will never be lacking for weapons. With a year of confidence and playoff experience, Rome dela Rosa stepped out of his father’s shadow and became a player to reckon with. Most Improved Player Jake Pascual wil provide the intriguing versatility in the frontcourt, while another Fil-Am addition, Kyle Pascual (no relation), will be given a chance to make his mark.

Jose Rizal University likewise lost a lot of talent that is difficult, if not impossible, to replace. Most Valuable Player John Wilson is the main loss, and his spectacular shooting, solid rebounding and leadership will definitely be missed. Wilson was good for no less than 20 points and eight rebounds a game, and it is a testament to his consistency that foreign-born players weren’t able to cop the award.

Two more losses are starting point gaurd Mark Cagoco and James Sena. Cagoco was a streak shooter and capable passer, who had games when he would just take over and provide a second scorer. Sena, to be frank, was better in 2008, but was a capable defender even after it was announced that he was drafted by San Migue Beer. Those two were the other pillars of the Heavy Bombers’s rotation.

JRU will still have its strong supporting cast, led by workhorse Marvin Hayes, who has consistently averaged double figures in points and rebounds despite being only 6-2. Also, Nchotu Njei blossomed as a shooting guard and outstanding rebounder. The uncertainty of course is whether or not new head coach Vergel Meneses will have a healthy 6-8 Etame Joe the full season. It has been reported that Etame’s ACL injury has not been able to heal properly. Another question was their using both Njei and Etame at the same time in pre-season play, something they will not be allowed to do in the NCAA.

The past five years have been torture for the Letran Knights, with the constant depletion of their talent base. But this year may be the most difficult for coach Louie Alas. He lost Rey Guevarra to a knee injury at a crucial stage of the last season, and it all but dashed their chances of making it to the finals. Guevarra and Jazul have served out theri tenure and joined the Smart-Gilas Philippine team, but there has really been nobody to fill the void for the Knights. But as is often repeated, any team with Alas on the bench is dangerous, and they will slay their fair share of giants this year.

Expect one thing, though. Letran will be the most physical and defensively demanding team in the NCAA. Louie Alas’ mantra of “40 minutes of hell” will echo throughout their campaign, and they will get into some scuffles with more talented teams. This collection of undersized big men and overachieving role players will always compete, and hard.

The big question for the NCAA this season is if the leaders will break out of the pack early. Last year, the middle of the first round saw an early separation, which left the other teams scrambling to catch up.

The rest of the NCAA rosters in Monday’s column.

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