The common impression is that sometimes wars can be started accidentally. Even such major wars as the first world war was thought by some people to have started accidentally.
However, political scientists Erik Lin-Greenberg of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has written that wars are not accidents. He says that uncertainty also raises the prospect that provocations will lead to a crisis that will spiral out of a leaders control. This use of brinkmanship to pressure a rival and the desire to limit escalation sometimes forces decision-makers to navigate a crisis cautiously. The leaders on opposing sides often probe how far they can go while keeping a situation under control. But this does not always work out.
Among his examples, Lin-Greenberg uses the Philippines as a case study and he writes:
“Consider the Philippines’ calculations for responding to Chinese provocations in the water around its territory. It is unclear what would drive Manila to use force in response to aggressive Chinese moves against Philippine ships. It is equally unclear how Beijing would respond to Manila’s actions and whether such a crisis would lead the Philippines to invoke the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty which commits Washington to defend the country and could thus draw the US forces into the dispute. The uncertainty surrounding this interaction may make Beijing more cautious than it otherwise would be.
There have been examples in the past where even during the most tense moments, conflicting nations are able to avoid direct conflict. Even during the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union never accidentally fell into conflict. Decision makers were able to decide to step back from war because they recognize the potential catastrophic results of any escalation.
However, decision makers misjudge the breaking point of their rivals and may take actions that opponents may perceive as more provocative than intended. When tensions do rise, nations try to de-escalate but this can be challenging because leaders may face political pressure to escalate their defensive moves during crisis. Leaders always fear that looking weak will harm them politically. In this event, voters may punish leaders at the polls for failing to act.
Last year, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro announced in public that he expected American intervention in the event of a Chinese attack on Philippine military outposts. US President Joe Biden has repeatedly described Washington’s defense commitment to the Philippines as “iron clad.” As of this date, the world expects that the United States will not back down from its treaty obligations with the Philippines. If it does so, the US can be labelled as an untrustworthy ally.
This is one reason why we are awaiting eagerly what Donald Trump will say about their treaty obligations with the Philippines. It is a well-known fact that Trump has an isolationist foreign policy and does not necessarily see the United States as the world’s leader in the defense of freedom against authoritarian states.
Todays national leaders must identify ways to pursue national aims while avoiding war. The ideal is that a country must advance their strategic objectives without going to battle. But if going to a state of conflict becomes unavoidable, the Philippines can learn a lesson from Ukraine. This is a relatively small country that has somehow battled Russia, a superpower, to a standstill. The amazing thing is that Ukraine has been able to use technology to fight against a nuclear power.
One method is that unbelievably, Ukraine has been able to use technology as its main weapon against Russia. For example, Ukraine has used drones which are much cheaper than the more expensive Russian missiles but these drones have been as effective.
Ukraine and Taiwan have shown the Philippines that the proper use of technology together with a united citizenry in defense of their national sovereignty can defend itself against the invasion of a super country.
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I support this competition to honor the FLORA Awards for women educators in rural communities, a rare opportunity for such individuals to be acknowledged.
The Multinational Foundation Inc. (MFI), in partnership with the TOWNS Foundation Inc., has officially launched the Filipina Achievers for Rural Education Awards (FLORA) 2024, a program dedicated to recognizing the invaluable contributions of Filipino women educators in uplifting rural education.
This honors women educators who have gone above and beyond traditional teaching methods, fostering innovation, critical thinking and social responsibility among their students. The awards are open to Filipino women educators in basic, higher and technical education who are based in 4th, 5th or 6th class municipalities.
Now on its second year, FLORA continues to highlight the transformative impact of education on underserved communities, particularly in rural areas.
MFI is a longstanding advocate of education as a tool for nation-building. The TOWNS Foundation Inc., co-organizer of the FLORA Awards, is a non-profit organization that recognizes and honors outstanding Filipino women who have made significant contributions in various fields.
Nominations for FLORA 2024 are now open until Jan. 3. Interested parties can visit the official FLORA website at floraph.com for details on eligibility, nomination requirements and deadlines.
For more info, contact Dina Ocampo at awards@floraph.com