An interesting trend has emerged in two recent surveys conducted by reputable pollster OCTA Research: about a third of Filipinos no longer identify themselves with the current major political blocs – the Marcoses and Dutertes – or even the opposition.
As defined by OCTA to the respondents, the opposition refers to the traditional bloc comprising the so-called pink and yellow plus left-leaning groups.
I hesitate to describe this bloc as the minority, since in 2022, over 15 million voters went for pink candidate Leni Robredo. Too bad for their loyal supporters, the bloc takes defeat badly, unlike the Marcoses who never say die.
This moping in defeat and sliding into political oblivion must be among the reasons for the public disaffection with the traditional opposition (as indicated in the surveys) despite its worthy causes.
Between the first and second quarters this year, the “none of the above” segment went up slightly from 29 to 31 percent. OCTA president Ranjit Rye notes that two points is within the statistical margin of error.
Those identifying with the opposition went up by one point – but this is still just five percent compared to the 36 percent identifying with the Marcoses, which was a five-point gain for the ruling clan from the previous quarter.
Those five points must have come from the Dutertes – the biggest loser in the OCTA poll, dropping from 20 percent in March to 16 percent in the June 29-July 1 survey. This conjecture is based on the exodus of politicians from Rodrigo Duterte’s Partido Demokratiko Pilipino to the current ruling coalition of BBM’s Partido Federal ng Pilipinas and the Lakas-CMD led by his cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez.
At the rate the PDP-Duterte faction is hemorrhaging, it would soon become the undisputed new “Volkswagen party” – with the entire membership small enough to fit into a VW Beetle.
Last Thursday, the ruling coalition became the largest bloc following its formal alliance with the Villar-led (and cash-rich) Nacionalista Party.
Philippine politicians being mostly pragmatic types (or opportunistic, depending on where you sit), that bloc is bound to continue growing in the run-up to the 2025 midterm races.
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The OCTA poll was conducted around the time that Vice President Sara Duterte resigned as education secretary and co-vice chair of the anti-communist task force.
It was also conducted just days after the VP announced that her two brothers plus their father would run for the Senate in 2025, with Davao City Mayor Sebastian likely to run for president in 2028.
Rye, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, told “Storycon” on One News last week that the ugly bickering between the erstwhile UniTeam allies must have contributed to the fall in the number of people identifying themselves with the Dutertes, and the significant number of the “none of the above” segment.
Last Wednesday, the bickering erupted into open warfare, with VP Sara criticizing for the first time the Marcos administration on several issues. Not surprisingly, the House of Representatives got special mention.
She continued her harangue on Thursday, after the Court of Appeals ordered a freeze on the bank accounts and properties of their clan’s staunch supporter Apollo Quiboloy.
Again, the VP’s statements on Quiboloy were a direct assault on BBM: the administration’s moves against the preacher, the VP said, were part of efforts to stay in power “forever.”
How will her open warfare with BBM affect the numbers in the next survey on pro-Dutertes and pro-Marcoses? Or will it further swell the ranks of the “none of the above”?
Last Saturday, pollster Social Weather Stations released its second quarter survey showing the VP’s net satisfaction rating plummeting from +63 in end-March to +44 in the survey period of June 23 to July 1. SWS noted that it was her lowest satisfaction rating so far since becoming VP.
That’s still 65 percent satisfied with the VP and 21 percent dissatisfied, with her ratings lowest in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, and highest in her bailiwick Mindanao.
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The number of “undecided” in the OCTA survey is the X factor here. At 11 percent (down from the 15 percent in the previous quarter), it’s a large segment that can be still be wooed by the different blocs. It’s unlikely that all the 11 percent will constitute one solid bloc; more likely, the undecided will splinter and support different factions.
It’s just two months, however, before the filing of candidacies for the 2025 midterm polls. People who identify themselves as undecided at this point appear to be more in the same mold as the “none of the above” group, and will be open to candidates not affiliated with the Marcoses, Dutertes and the traditional opposition.
This opens the doors to independents and non-traditional politicians. Let’s hope those who succeed in tapping into the disaffection of the “none of the above” segment are not simply fading show biz stars in need of a career change.
Unfortunately, several of the emerging alternatives to the none of the above are just as undesirable – some even more so than the current crop of incompetent, lying crooks that people are sick and tired of.
Independent, competent folks who see politics as an enabler for people empowerment and national progress should take advantage of the “none of the above” segment’s disaffection and raise their profile. This can be done on a budget these days through social media. Less campaign expenses should mean fewer people wanting payback for their support, and therefore fewer windows for corruption.
Is this nothing but wishful thinking?
Hope springs eternal. There have been several black swans in Philippine politics; anything is possible.