No one runs an evacuation operation like Joey Salceda.
The Albay governor, and erstwhile financial analyst, has planned for this to the smallest detail. He and his team know exactly how many people needed to be moved to shelters at each escalation of the volcano alert level. He had the evacuation centers ready and the goods stored.
The last we heard from him, he was inviting NGOs to organize concerts and run seminars to keep the evacuees from getting bored. When some of them insisted on returning to their homes to look after their farm animals, he had evacuation centers for the animals activated as well. When they returned to the mountainside to gather firewood, the provincial government decided to procure the wood for them.
If there was an impresario for public safety in the face of calamity, Joey has to be it. His zero-casualty program should be a model for other local governments.
Unfortunately, volcanoes are inherently uncooperative. They never behave exactly the same way each time they act up. They rumble on and on and then retreat into silence. Or they blow up with little warning.
Mayon is a particularly impetuous volcano. Every few years, it acts up. At times, it decides to be really explosive, threatening to ruin the perfect cone that has made it famous. At other times, it is content to just rumble on for a few weeks, throw up some sulfur oxide and spill some lava before quieting down.
Prepared as the provincial government of Albay might be to remove tens of thousands of people from the volcano danger zone, the volcano might just decide to play games with puny human organizations.
The local authorities may be capable of keeping evacuees content and safe for a few weeks. The volcano, however, might decide to keep us on edge for months.
Our scientists say that with all the tremors and all the molten earth spilling out of the crater, the volcano is technically on eruption mode. An explosive event could happen in a matter of days — if previous behavior is any guide.
But these are all educated guesses. We have a general idea of what the volcano will probably do; not anything specific about what will actually happen.
Volcanoes are terribly whimsical natural phenomena — a characteristic that explains why some people fall madly in love with them. The late Rey Punongbayan, former Philvolcs head, used to talk about his volcanoes like they were intimate acquaintances.
Volcanoes are interesting to observe; impossible to predict. When they are in an eruptive episode, they are a marvel to watch. When they become very destructive, they remind us that nature is large and we are small.
For centuries, Pinatubo was deep in sleep. We actually forgot it was a volcano. Then it came to life with such fury the earth’s atmosphere was changed for months after the eruption. To this day, we are still dealing with the lahar flows from that mountain.
Pinatubo reminds us not to be too comfortable with other mountains we have arbitrarily labeled “inactive.” Arayat and Banahaw we have revered as holy places. Let us hope they remain passive for a few more million years.
The Tagaytay ridge is what remains of a very large mountain leveled by Taal a few million years ago. Today, Taal is the world’s smallest volcano, discounting the hundreds of underwater volcanoes we could not keep track of. We know, however, it could pack as much power as Pinatubo.
Mayon, I think, remains the more majestic of our volcanoes. It did not acquire that perfect cone out of accident. It has that shape because of the consistency with which it erupted over a great period.
Mayon is so unlike Pinatubo, which goes into deep sleep. Mayon is frequently awake. It lets off steam regularly and our scientists say it can never pack the fury of a Pinatubo.
Let’s hope our scientists are correct: it would be such a waste to lose that perfect cone.
The evacuees from the slopes of Mayon feel particularly miserable because the volcano chose to act up just as Christmas approached. It is nearly certain they will spend the holidays huddled in the sanctuaries Joey Salceda prepared for them.
Let us hope that is the final extent of the misery they must endure. If the volcano becomes more violent than usual, they might have to be moved further away. More people might have to be removed from their homes. The whole nation might have to move with the same spirit of caring we saw in the aftermath of Ondoy and Pepeng.
Right now, we can only wait. It is an exercise in humility: there is nothing we can do to dictate how volcanoes will behave.
Unlike a storm, which is done and over with in a matter of days, episodes of volcanic eruptions can linger on beyond their welcome. There will be anxious waiting the next few days or weeks.
That will, to be sure, not diminish the joyfulness of the season. It does add a dose of drama to the usual rituals of this time.
It gives the nation a bright focal point, justly reminding us that this season is as much about charity as it is about celebration.