Officially, the principal reason for the visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is to express solidarity with Filipinos (and provide more aid) amid the misery caused by recent natural disasters.
Underlying that message of solidarity is the reminder that US assistance in the disasters was facilitated by existing bilateral defense cooperation mechanisms, including the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA).
US Ambassador Kristie Kenney has said several times that her government is happy with the VFA, even if a renegotiation might include clarifying certain provisions that would be beneficial for US forces visiting the Philippines.
For example, the VFA is vague on when the one-year deadline for the completion of judicial proceedings, in case a US soldier faces criminal prosecution here, is supposed to start and end. Does the period start upon indictment or arraignment? Does it end at conviction by a lower court, or should the one-year period cover all appeals and final resolution by either the Court of Appeals of the Supreme Court, which could take several years?
Philippine security officials are divided on whether the country can do without the assistance and goodwill resulting from the security alliance with US.
Some officials tell me that based on their computations, US military assistance to the Philippines amounts to about $20 million a year. Those officials feel the country can afford to lose that aid, given mainly in kind, in the name of independence and national pride.
These officials argue that the country will never be truly independent as long as there are foreign troops stationed in this country, whether permanently, semi-permanently, or on tours of duty lasting just three to six months.
Certain military officers, on the other hand, say that unless the government is ready to make up for the loss in case US aid is cut off, their units would feel the loss.
At this point, I don’t think those military officers have much to fear. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is presenting herself as a staunch US ally until the very end. Her dinner for Clinton was just starting as I wrote this article and we couldn’t know what was discussed. But Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo, who met with Clinton earlier in the day, made it clear that the executive branch remained committed to its security alliance with the United States.
US officials have consistently said their troops were invited back here by the Philippine government (by President Arroyo in 2002, to be precise) and will stay until told otherwise.
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It’s probably force of habit, but Philippine officials (this President in particular) who routinely brush aside domestic criticisms over corruption and human rights violations continue to bow to pressure from Uncle Sam during crucial moments in our national life.
When the President was planning to declare her version of martial law amid efforts to oust her, a series of visits by top US officials, among them the director of national intelligence at the time, John Negroponte, made her change her mind.
The final retreat was made and the state of national emergency was lifted shortly after a visit by US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill.
Among the casualties of that failure by Malacañang to secure Washington’s support for the new version of martial law was the ambassador to the US at the time, Albert del Rosario.
During President Arroyo’s visit to Washington this year, amid reports that she was scheming to extend her stay in power, President Barack Obama impressed upon her the importance of pushing through with the 2010 elections and handing over power peacefully.
That message is expected to be repeated during Clinton’s visit.
Philippine officials have long been comfortable with relying on outside help for everything, from military aid to assistance in disaster relief and long-term reconstruction.
It’s a dependence that we must one day break if we are to become a strong republic. But this isn’t going to happen in the twilight of this administration.
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Our officials can even afford to be arrogant in the face of national dependence.
President Arroyo told foreign donors, in so many words, that it was their duty to help the Philippines following the disasters, the country being a victim and not a cause of climate change.
We got an indication of what the donor community thought of that when the United Nations sent out a “flash appeal” for international help in the wake of Ondoy and Pepeng. The aid committed fell far short of the target, modest as it was.
Now the government is preparing for a “pledging session” on Dec. 2 for reconstruction of the devastated areas.
Several agencies are completing a “needs assessment” in the affected areas, with the results to be presented at the session.
If the assessment can be completed in two weeks, the government might get firm commitments of additional aid.
But it would have to give up its original intent of getting commitments for long-term reconstruction projects in the disaster areas. For this, the government must present not only to the donor community but also to the private sector, whose participation is sure to be needed, solid plans for disaster mitigation. For example, the government must first decide what it plans to do to ease flooding in the communities around Laguna de Bay.
It might also help if the government, before including independent foreign agencies in its executive orders, gives the agencies the courtesy of notifying their officials first.
The executive order for rehabilitation wants the World Bank and the United Nations to organize the forthcoming pledging session. Was Malacañang asking or ordering the two agencies?
Reliable sources have told me that some members of the donor community are having second thoughts about participating in the pledging session, especially in the absence of the results of the needs assessment or solid proposals for reconstruction projects.
Several of the donors, I was told, also consider it a hard sell to ask their governments to provide relief assistance to a country that is considered “middle income” or not poor enough. There are many other countries, poorer than the Philippines, that also urgently need help.
There is one reliable source of aid for the Philippines, and that is Washington. Clinton committed yesterday an additional $5.2 million in aid for typhoon victims, on top of $14 million in rescue and relief assistance already given. Most of the aid has been given directly to beneficiaries.
If critics say US aid comes with strings attached, the Arroyo administration does not seem to mind.