If any of us even begins to imagine how poor this country of ours is it would seem that only President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her yes-men in Malacañang remain believing that the economy has become better. Let me first say that I do believe many things have been good developments in the business sector and in investments. I might even believe there have been slight improvements against red-tape and governance with regards to business. But you might want to hold on to your seats and fasten your belts when you listen to some of the experts on the economy who, from different groups and even of different political orientations, have cried SOS in unison: “It’s going to get worse before it gets better”.
The interviewees are UP’s Dr. Felipe Medalla --- who hasn’t been seen much nor spoken too much publicly about recent goings-on (although he has signed on the Gloria Resign manifesto of the UP’s University Council). He believes the worldwide market forces are unstoppable for now and the Arroyo government’s failures and abuses make it endlessly more formidable than if it were not the case and good governance were to actually help soften the impact of an international crisis; the Ateneo’s Prof. Cielito Habito --- who has also been scarce and who has a slightly more optimistic view of the current situation. He thinks that, while it will most probably worsen for practically everyone in the world it will not be as bad as the 1997 crisis the Philippines went through and eventually survived (did we survive it?); and Larouche Society Chairman Butch Valdes, the “Prophet of Doom” as some have called him and who has long been predicting a “financial tsunami” because of what he calls the artificial survival of the US economy which should have gone under a long time ago if it were not for band-aid remedies to a cancerous situation. This is the same group that said the worldwide paranoia on the effects of Global Warming is a hoax perpetrated by Americans to gain more control of everyone else in the world. So I can see how the Larouche Society can be dismissed for its conspiracy theories. But so far, Valdes’ predictions are on track.
The common denominator in their analyses: World oil prices will continue to soar, the rice shortage will worsen as China loses its dependence on its own produce because of climate changes; the dollar remains weak and may further weaken leaving OFW’s take home money much less in value, prices of basic commodities will soar. The combination of world market forces to date is unlike anything they have seen before: The US sub-prime bomb going off, oil prices soaring to the heavens, China unable to produce enough for its own and elbowing everybody else out of lion’s share purchase of food supply from traditional sources. This makes any prediction volatile. The best scenario against the worst scenario may be at the most extreme. Their common advice: Just be ready to tighten the belt. Valdes goes further: Get rid of debt servicing, regulate oil process, straighten up governance and stare the nemesis in the eye.
Meantime, according to the last Pulse Asia Survey, more than 71% of Filipinos believe that they are hopelessly impoverished and that their situation had gone worse from 12 months before. Over 13 million households believed themselves to be “very poor” while 15% believe they are “rich”. It wouldn’t be surprising, then, that whenever President Arroyo speaks about the “better living conditions in the Philippines” most of the masses would be looking like expressionless zombies watching tv with their mouth open.
Our program on ABS-CBN, Rated K, thought of looking for Mang Pandoy. Remember him? He was the guy “adopted” and used as a mascot of sorts by then President Fidel Ramos to exhibit to the public how an indigent may rise out of poverty with the help of government’s programs. As I recall, a few years after he was introduced to the public Mang Pandoy was still waiting for the complete package government had promised him. More than a decade and two administrations after, we found Mang Pandoy as poor as he was first found. But the Ramos administration apparently gave Mang Pandoy what they promised. Still, Exhibit A proves the failure of government to think of, strategize and implement a sustainable exit plan from poverty for the ordinary Filipino. It’s just like the agrarian reform program and providing farmers with the hybrid seedlings for rice --- but not supporting it with irrigation and subsidized fertilizers --- so that farmers end up selling their lands to the owners again. The dole-out mentality seems deeply ingrained in governance, propagated and institutionalized by the politicians who run it. These are the same politicians who give dole-outs in Christmastime and during elections. And then, goodbye.