While we are focused on Myanmar’s saffron revolution, something else is happening that requires our attention: the long predicted Asian Century. Will it be derailed yet again? I quote two Asian leaders, Mahathir and Lee Kuan Yew, who led their countries to economic success and earn the respect of the West. They have a wider perspective on what is happening in Myanmar. What they said, a decade apart, strangely resonate on this wider vision on the future of Asia.
Lee Kuan Yew calls the Myanmar turmoil a ticking “time bomb” in the region and asked all to help to defuse it. And how does he think it ought to be defused? Certainly it would not be by more sanctions or by encouraging more saffron revolutions. And that is where the trouble begins. US President Bush used the APEC platform in Sydney to say he was for ‘more’ sanctions and punishment for all who do business with Myanmar. Other allies made similar, if muted appeals. Most of them are doing business with Myanmar and its own officials admitted sanctions have left the US far behind. (I bought a can of coke in Mandalay airport. Business is brisk with Western brands sold openly. Indeed, it is an open secret that businesses have gone around the sanctions and trade by proxy either through Bangkok or Singapore banks.)
The UK-based New Statesman says the problem is the Chinese, Myanmar’s powerful ally, have a different goal. George Bush and Gordon Brown may be pressing for democracy while the Chinese care about stability. They had no desire to see brutality by the troops on the streets, but the last thing they wanted was a revolutionary overthrow in a neighboring country. “What really concerns China in the issue of Myanmar is that a failed state of any political persuasion may lead to the disintegration of the country and a revival of civil war, which will have serious repercussions in the region,” writes Xiaolin Guo, an anthropologist based at Uppsala University in Sweden.
The Chinese are not unwilling to persuade the generals to come to some accommodation with the political opposition and rebellious ethnic fighters. Indeed the Chinese officials have met opposition leaders and even arranged a meeting between US and Burmese government representatives in June. Beijing had hoped the contacts would lead to diplomacy like the six-party talks that brought North Korean and US negotiators together. But the way things are developing this may be a futile effort. Only the other day, western media carried a picture of a dead monk sunk in mud in perfect contrast to the picture of the two Korean leaders able to shake hands thanks to patient diplomacy.
Moreover, no matter how hard China downplays its successful economy, (smaller than the US, Japan and Germany) the fact is it holds $1.4 trillion in reserves, much of it held in US treasury bonds giving it unprecedented influence over the global financial system. “China is already changing the way the world works, by influence and example,” New Statesman adds.
With America’s image suffering because of Iraq, it is China filling the gap. “These days, to many people globally, the Americans seem like the ideologues, with their shrill demands for democracy, while the Chinese are quietly winning friends and influencing people with aid projects, low-interest loans, Confucius Institutes and the aura of success,” says one analyst. The perception is authoritarian capitalism works. It gets things done.
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Mahathir and the Asian Century — After the 1999 Asian financial crisis, Mahathir predicted attempts will again be made to derail or hinder the Asian Century from ever happening but went out of his way to say it was not necessarily a conspiracy. I have excerpted that speech to show how recent events may have something to do with his fears almost a decade ago:
“Of course in the political field any number of things can happen which can affect the rest of Asia. So far the pressures from outside for the Central Asian countries to democratize have not been significant. But as soon as these countries become rich and offer good markets, democracy, human rights and the implementation of open market economies will be forced upon them. As we all know the pressure to democratize and respect human rights is not due to concern for the well-being of people, but for the benefit of those rich people wishing to reap more profits for themselves in more countries.
There was much talk of the 21st Century becoming the Asian Century. The Europeans were not going to have things their way much longer. China, held down by the Communist ideology, woke up from its slumber and rapidly absorbed Western-style commerce and industry and showed every sign of becoming another Japan, only five times bigger. The threat of Asian domination of the world in the 21st Century was becoming more and more real. They could not be stopped militarily. Nor could the West defeat them and impoverish them by competing in the market. I don’t think there was a conspiracy. But the attacks on the morality of Asian governments expanded to the other economic tigers. All were accused of crony capitalism. It looked like there was no stopping them. They were going to grow and they were going to continue to challenge the West. Southeast Asia can recover faster and more strongly if it is less preoccupied with gaining the approval of the West in the way it manages things politically and economically. While oppressive authoritarian rule and corruption must be avoided, firm and strong Governments must be allowed to govern and to develop their countries. The idea that a country is not democratic unless disruptive forces are allowed to threaten peace and stability must be rejected.
But what is important is not to try to be politically correct to please the West. What is important is the economic development of the countries. Poverty eradication is far more important than the right to bring down governments because of alleged misdeeds. The important thing to remember is that the next government will commit the same misdeeds. The governments of West Asia may not be very democratic but it is doubtful that they will improve simply by adopting liberal democracy. What is more important is for them to reduce their quarrels and subversion of each other.
No one from within or outside Asia should appoint himself or his country as the policeman charging himself with the responsibility to ensure that everyone behaves. The long term objective should be for all Asian countries to be subservient to no one, but truly independent and as developed as the nations of Europe. Asian countries must take their places in the community of nations of the world as equals. And Asian values and Asian ways of doing things must be accepted as legitimate, normal and inferior to no one. This is the agenda for Asia. With this agenda Asian countries will emerge in the 21st Century as equal partners with the developed countries of the World.“
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My e-mail is cpedrosaster@gmail.com