First of all, we saw two rollbacks in fuel pump prices the past two weeks. Those rollbacks reflect the softening prices of crude oil in the world market as well as the relatively stable performance of our currency.
The rollbacks are not much. But at least they break what once appeared to be an incessant pattern of oil price increases.
Be thankful for the little things. Be grateful for the rare relief. Global oil prices are not about to drop dramatically. Global supply of the irreplaceable commodity continues to be pressured by high global demand.
The world’s economic leaders are treading a tightrope: trying, on one hand, to avert a recessionary crash of the global economy because of steep oil price rises while, on the other hand, trying to nurture growth which in its turn pushes up oil demand.
This will be a continuing epic. It will take another generation for the world to be able to drive its growth using renewable energy sources.
If it is any consolation, oil at its present price levels creates enough market incentive for the development of renewable energy sources that once seemed too costly to explore in any meaningful scale.
The other piece of good news is that Fitch credit rating agency improved our standing a bit in response to government efforts to strengthen our fiscal position.
Fitch did not give us an upgrade. Pegging us at the same grade, the agency however improved our credit outlook from "negative" to "stable."
An upgrade would have really been dramatic. But that might be too much to ask for.
After all, we did not do dramatically enough to improve government’s revenue flow in the foreseeable future. The "sin taxes" law treated some major players with kid gloves. The VAT law was a letdown for many who expected a bullet-biting measure that will dramatically shift our fiscal course.
In fact, some analysts dismissed the VAT measure as nothing more than fiscal window dressing. Notwithstanding, left-wing militants are using the seriously softened measure as a rallying point to build political pressure on the administration.
Had the Senate found the economic statesmanship required to push the original version of the VAT law, we would have been able to win an outright upgrade, reduce the costs of servicing our debt and delivered a "credibility shock" to the investment community. That is water under the bridge – although the miserable performance of our legislature in this episode leaves lasting doubts about the capacity of our institutions to meet the demands of modern economic management.
At any rate, the slight improvement in Fitch’s appraisal of our prospects did cause a small ripple of bullishness in the markets. Just a small ripple. But that is good enough considering the severe drought of good news that has hit us.
The other piece of good news is that the World Bank is offering us soft loan packages. That will help us strengthen our national financial position, retiring costly short-term debt by accepting cheaper, longer-term financing.
The offer of help is, of course, conditional on further improvements in our fiscal position. That will involve some belt-tightening and, more important, greater efficiency in managing public revenues. It will require an even more determined crackdown on leakages in public finances due to inefficiency, sheer wastefulness and corruption.
Government will have to maintain its focus in getting things right. The additional revenue we failed to get with that half-hearted VAT law we will have to compensate for by way of greater savings in government operations. The primary surplus gained by government in the first quarter of this year improved confidence in the determination of this administration to improve our fiscal position.
Improved collections by the BIR in the last month, accompanied by high-profile campaigns against tax evaders, sends a healthy signal to all who fret about the possibility that we might become another Argentina. There might be little doubt about the sincerity of the effort to put our house in fiscal order. But there is abundant reason to doubt the sustainability of efforts in this nation with a history of many short spurts towards progress.
Early this week, a bunch of lowlife gangsters bungled a bus hold-up in Zamboanga and ended up taking the whole bus hostage while policemen acted quickly to avert an escape. The ensuing stand-off was broken when the quiet bishop of Pagadian joined the mediation and offered himself hostage in place of the beleaguered passengers.
The hostages were released. The gangsters were allowed to go aboard the bishop’s own vehicle with the good bishop at the wheel.
Thankfully, Bishop Emmanuel Cabajar was released without incident. A pursuit operation was quickly organized to go after the gangsters, suspected to be either plain gunrunners or members of the New People’s Army.
Bishop Cabajar was praised by the Palace for his uncommon courage. He put his own life on the line to secure the hapless hostages in that ill-fated bus.
While the hostage-taking incident adds to the blight that is our peace-and-order situation, the heroic role played by the good bishop makes us all proud. I add this to the short inventory of relieving news we’ve had the past few days.
The quiet, almost routine heroism of Bishop Cabajar tells us that in the dreariest of times, there is still enough heroism in our community. This is not the faux heroism of the noisy, self-righteous and grandstanding lot that puts great effort at grabbing the headlines most days. It is the heroism of common people that comes forth at crunch time, when it matters.
It is that heroism of ordinary citizens that must gush forth at this time of great challenge for the nation. All of us must daily do things above the ordinary to help push our nation out of the present rut.