Last Tuesday, on a talk show at ANC, Tina Monzon Palma asked me when I thought our people would shake out of the election fever and settle down to normal lives. At that moment, FPJ supporters had overrun Jojo Binay’s victory rally in Makati and threatened to launch what they called "Edsa IV/Ayala I".
I told her that a return to normalcy would happen the next morning.
That was because, a few hours earlier, the SWS released its exit poll. That exit poll showed President Gloria posting close to a 9 percent lead over her closest rival.
Given the general accuracy of exit polls and the specific record of previous SWS exit polls, people generally accepted those results as the virtual count. An exit poll was no longer a snapshot of voter disposition leading up to elections. It was a definitive picture of how voters voted on election day.
Those who continue to maintain an adverse attitude towards survey techniques are most likely feigning ignorance about how statistical probabilities and sampling techniques work. Or they might sincerely be ignorant about statistical science. Or they just need to maintain a political posture that will keep their army of watchers on the job, protecting their share of the vote.
In the aftermath of the exit polls, two of the presidential candidates prepared to reconcile with the indicated outcome.
Panfilo Lacson and, a few days later, Raul Roco began emphasizing the need for establishing political unity. In a season of great challenges, the nation needs to pull together.
Implicit in the public utterances of the two candidates is a recognition that the elections had produced a clear winner. But neither is conceding yet – at least until the count is substantially done and the certificates of canvass secured.
Reassuringly, neither the Lacson nor the Roco camp seems inclined towards aggravating the tense and complex counting process by resorting to unwarranted agitation. The same cannot be said, unfortunately, about the two other losing presidential candidates.
It is understandable that Eddie Villanueva should exhibit some distress and require more time to heal his wounded pride. He had entered this contest claiming nothing less than a divine mandate to do so. During the campaign, he massed his supporters in such awesome numbers that it threatened our sense of proportion. He promised a political miracle and managed, in the end, only a humble share of the actual vote.
Was he talking to a lesser god? Was the miracle aborted by fraud? Was his impending triumph snatched away by massive cheating?
Most of us don’t think so. His was a campaign largely confined to the capital region and surrounding provinces. It was a campaign conducted with much righteous passion and also with much amateurishness.
It will not be unjust to call this a quixotic quest. His roughly 5 percent of the vote is impressive, all things considered. But it is surely not enough to cause him to be the center-of-gravity of whatever post-electoral configuration would emerge hence.
But there is a seething anger on the part of Villanueva. It might be due to the fact that his own son lost in what was considered his bailiwick. It might be due, as well, to the exit poll finding that only about half of his JIL members actually voted for the shepherd of the flock.
Messiahs are always difficult to appease when prophesies somehow malfunction. But Villanueva’s messianic post-electoral tantrums threaten to align him with those dark forces seeking to use this moment of uncertainty to attempt yet another power grab.
We have not heard enough from Fernando Poe Jr. to give us a clear indication of his own disposition. The day after the elections, he conducted a brief press conference and seemed to be well on that way towards tarring and feathering the polls as well as leading street protests to avert the outcome of that process.
A few days later, Poe changed his tune, saying he does not endorse street protests. His word was, however, immediately contradicted by his more combative underlings. Kit Tatad was quoted as saying they would do street protests no matter what Poe thinks.
Given that Poe has exhibited little control over the political players who mounted his campaign, we better pay attention to the likes of Tatad. This, especially, since Poe has this unsettling habit of becoming reclusive during crucial moments.
I have been keeping track of text messages circulating within the KNP circuit, thanks to friends in that circuit concerned over the unbridled passions of their own colleagues. It seems to me that there is a large persecution syndrome sweeping the ranks of KNP supporters, fomented to a large extent by agitators who seem to be bent on setting up an uprising.
This crowd is particularly vulnerable to agitation. The outcome of this election did not conform to their unfounded imagination of things. And so they are focused on that bizarre Channel 5 count that seems to be plucking numbers out of thin air to show Poe leading the race.
The agitation is further stoked by the elocution of the likes of Tito Sotto who, once again, adds new concepts to our political vocabulary each time he makes a pronouncement. Lately he has been quoted as saying they would not accept the "illegal election" of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
By convention, elections are understood as political rather than legal exercises. We need a little more time to figure out what Sotto means by "illegal election." Does he mean that the last elections were held against the dictate of law?
Fortunately for all of us, those trying very hard to undermine the credibility of the last poll labor under the weight of their own incoherence. We all remember that character captured in a TV clip in last Tuesday pro-FPJ rally in Makati. After denouncing the elections as fraudulent, in the same breath said their camp would produce the evidence as soon as they receive them.
In the same oxymoronic fashion, pro-FPJ partisans in Davao have offered a bounty for any evidence of poll fraud – which can only mean that denunciation has preceded evidence. Hysteria has preceded fact.
There should be a point where fatigue overtakes even the agitators. For most of us, this process is over and done with. The Namfrel is moving apace with its count and the outcome is certain.