Territorial disputes in the South China Sea will top the agenda of President Estrada's state visit to China which starts today, according to Malacañang. In Beijing the President will witness the signing of several bilateral and trade agreements, but don't expect any major breakthrough in the South China Sea dispute. As far as territorial claims go, Beijing can be as immovable as the Great Wall of China. What President Estrada can expect from his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin is merely a reiteration to settle the dispute peacefully, plus another commitment to maintain the status quo -- meaning no expansion of that Chinese garrison in Mischief Reef, and no new construction on any of the islets that dot the South China Sea.
The dispute over the Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal, however, should not keep the two countries from improving bilateral relations. The Chinese were visiting these islands long before the arrival of the Spaniards in the 16th century. Some visitors stayed for good, settling throughout the country as merchants and artisans. Many Filipinos have a Chinese ancestor or two. Chinese influence in Philippine culture is pervasive. Even the national language is replete with words borrowed from the Chinese.
What divides the two countries, apart from the territorial dispute in the South China Sea, are ideological differences. Asia's most free-wheeling democracy cannot find common cause with a nation that arrests its people simply for membership in a benign religious cult. China's human rights record has slowed its acceptance in the international community, but there are those who believe constructive engagement is preferable to turning closed societies into global pariahs. The tack seems to be working. China has embraced the free market so much that there are those who say the country is no longer communist in anything except official declarations of the national ideology.
Reforms are sweeping China rapidly. If there are pauses along the way, they are meant to avoid the fate that befell the Soviet Union. The Philippines can work with this changing, dynamic China. Given our shared history, the two countries can even become close friends.