MANILA, Philippines — Fewer tropical cyclones have struck the Philippines since 2021 compared to the yearly average of 21, yet fatalities have doubled or tripled. The culprit? The growing frequency of larger, more destructive storms, experts told Philstar.com.
Astrophysicist Gerry Bagtasa, professor at the University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, ties these more intense typhoons to climate change.
“Since the 2000s, and especially in the 2010s actually, there have been more intense typhoons that hit Visayas and Mindanao. This is because of some changes in the atmosphere in the Pacific,” he said.
Mahar Lagmay, executive director of the UP Resilience Institute (UPRI), pointed out a troubling “spike” in fatalities since 2017. While 2016 saw 70 weather-related deaths — the lowest recorded since 2010 — the toll has remained consistently higher each year, often surpassing 100.
While a 2023 study showed a lower average of 284 fatalities from 2014 to 2022 compared to the average of 1,253 from 1986 to 2013, Lagmay emphasized that “one life lost is still one too many.”
Rising death toll
The 2024 cyclone season has taken a deadly turn. By September, Typhoon Julian and earlier weather systems had already claimed 146 lives, far exceeding the 84 fatalities in all of 2023.
Despite having fewer cyclones last year — just 11, the lowest in a decade — the death toll has nearly doubled. Julian, for one, was only the 10th cyclone of 2024, raising questions about the increased severity of these storms.
Wind engineer Joshua Agar, an assistant professor at the UP Institute of Civil Engineering, said there are three key factors to consider when assessing an area’s risk during inclement weather: hazard, exposure and vulnerability.
'Hazard.' After Typhoon Julian, the death toll more than doubled from 146. When six consecutive cyclones — Kristine, Leon, Marce, Nika, Ofel and Pepito — battered the Philippines in October and November, fatalities climbed to 324.
Agar explained that hazard was “the primary factor” behind the higher number of casualties caused by Kristine. He said the storm's rainfall on October 22 was equivalent to a month's worth of rain in Daet, Camarines Norte. It also surpassed the rainfall of Typhoons Ondoy and Carina.
Typhoons in 2024, influenced by La Niña, also “posed more risk” as they brought “wetter” conditions compared to those during the El Niño period in 2023, he said.
The death toll in 2024 is significantly higher than the fatalities recorded during the years 2017 to 2020, which saw an average of 21 cyclones annually.
After Super Typhoon Yolanda devastated the country in 2013, claiming over 6,000 lives, annual fatalities remained below 500 until 2021.
In 2021, Super Typhoon Odette caused over 400 deaths, and when combined with fatalities from other weather events, the total death toll for that year reached 500.
This exceeds the average number of fatalities recorded in a 2023 study, marking an unusual spike compared to the years 2014 to 2022. A similar case was observed in 2022 where the death toll reached 451.
“What we can consider is that these heavy rains, which used to occur only rarely — let's say once every 100 years — are now happening more frequently,” Lagmay said in a mix of English and Filipino.
Exposure. Aside from flood and landslide hazards influenced by increased rainfall, Agar said some populated areas were exposed to typhoons in recent years.
He cited Kristine as an example, highlighting how Naga, home to 209,170 people according to 2020 national data, was severely affected.
Meanwhile, Marce heavily impacted Aparri, one of the most populous municipalities in Cagayan, with a population of 68,839.
Agar also mentioned Typhoon Tisoy, which struck Legazpi in 2019, Typhoon Rolly, which hit Virac in 2020, and Typhoon Ulysses, which affected Tuguegarao later that same year.
With heavier rainfall and rising floodwaters, recent storms have caused entire households and plantations to be submerged.
Vulnerability. On top of exposure, he said the rise in fatalities could also be attributed to recent typhoons pummeling areas like Surigao and Cebu, which have not experienced severe storms in decades.
Before Odette severely impacted these provinces in 2021, the last major typhoon for them was Typhoon Ruping in 1990.
Bagtasa shared a similar view, explaining that provinces like Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela and Bicol “tend to bounce back quickly” due to their strong preparedness and collective memory of past disasters.
Meanwhile, provinces rarely struck by typhoons, such as those in the southern Visayas and Mindanao, may lack firsthand experience of their impacts, leaving them “more vulnerable,” he said.
Agar added that the growth of “non-engineered” housing, built with materials that are vulnerable to strong typhoons, may have also increased people’s risk of disasters.
What has improved
Although fatalities have risen due to deadlier storms, Bagtasa said the Philippines has already made significant strides in disaster science after Typhoon Ondoy ravaged the country in 2009.
He explained that local government units have strengthened their disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts, while forecasts from the state weather bureau PAGASA have also improved in quality and accuracy.
“I would say that PAGASA's forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks are not behind the forecasts of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). [They’re] comparable in fact,” he added.
This improvement is among the reasons why the annual death toll has decreased to less than 500, compared to the previous annual average of over 1,000 deaths.
Lagmay said that the passage of the Climate Change Act of 2009 and the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 has also contributed to a reduction in fatalities.
Supporting these policies was the government’s establishment of “hazard-specific, area-focused and time-bound warnings,” he added.
It provided the country with a pre-disaster risk assessment (PDRA), which the government used to identify potential hazards, the specific areas they are likely to affect, and when they would likely happen.
This was exhibited in Project NOAH or Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazard, which was launched in 2012.
The research program, originally under the Department of Science and Technology, was discontinued in 2017 due to the “lack of funds.” The UPRI took over Project NOAH just days before it was shut down.
Better impact-based reporting needed
However, both Lagmay and Bagtasa said improving the way forecasts are communicated to the grassroots is essential in strengthening disaster risk reduction efforts.
Among the reasons why people may find weather forecasts difficult to understand, he said, is the technicalities of weather terminologies, especially when they are reported in English.
“How we translate those words to easier-to-chew info is still a work in progress,” Bagtasa added.
He explained that while efforts to improve hazard and risk communication are underway, progress has been slow and limited.
Meanwhile, Lagmay stressed the need for more specific weather advisories that include the affected barangays and expected rainfall amounts.
Instead of waiting for the next bulletin, he said that real-time information and open datasets, which can be made available through mobile apps and websites, also empower people to take more informed action.
“The idea is, in disasters, emergencies, you don’t know when you need the information. It must be right at your fingertips, accessible anytime,” he said.
PAGASA weather specialist Gren Almario told Philstar.com the bureau is “working on these changes,” but they haven't been made public yet as simulations and flood thresholds, especially for rainfall, are still being checked.
They planned to disseminate PAGASA’s impact-based forecasting in Metro Manila, but Almario said they still need to refine the translation of warnings and forecasts — something he believes people should also learn to understand.
Agar also cited the lack of equipment and manpower as key issues, stressing the need for more investment in scientific institutions by providing necessary equipment and creating permanent positions, rather than relying on project-based ones.
He also mentioned that the government should focus on zoning hazard-prone areas to prevent people from settling there and limiting the growth of poorly constructed buildings.
“It is those compounding factors and the negligence of those realities that create scenarios which make the already-overwhelmed DRRM efforts unappreciated,” Agar said.