MANILA, Philippines — Surging global oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East could push Philippine inflation beyond the central bank’s target range this year, an economist said, raising concerns about renewed price pressures.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort said inflation may quicken beyond the 4% upper end of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas target band, as higher fuel costs spill over into transport, wages and other goods.
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"Inflation would likely go up and could potentially breach above the 4% upper range of the BSP’s inflation target," Ricafort said in an interview with the Philippine News Agency.
Ricafort said rising oil prices could trigger second-round effects, where higher transport and production costs lead to broader increases in consumer prices.
"High oil/fuel prices would lead to higher fares, wages, and other prices of other affected goods and services," he said.
Global oil prices have climbed close to $100 per barrel, with US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $98.32 as of posting time.
Locally, diesel prices are projected to increase by P16.60 to P17.50 per liter, while gasoline prices may rise by P7.50 to P8.50 per liter next week.
Philippines: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Feb. 2023 to Feb. 2026
CPI, which measures the average change over time in prices paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services, increased to 131.20 points in February from 131 points in January of 2026.