MANILA, Philippines — The world awaits with bated breath as the US chooses it next leader but Malacañang on Wednesday said it does not expect any significant changes in relations with the superpower regardless of who wins the presidency.
"You see the state department ensures continuity as far as US foreign policy is concerned. So we don't expect any major changes on the bilateral relations between the Philippines and the United States," presidential spokesman Harry Roque said in an interivew with CNN Philippines' "The Source."
Accoridng to New York-headquartered think tank Council on Foreign Relations, US foreign policy is influenced by both the president and by US Congress.
It notes that Congress has the power to "'regulate commerce with foreign nations,' 'declare war,' 'raise and support armies,' 'provide and maintain a navy,' and 'make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces.'"
The US president, meanwhile, has "the powers to make treaties and appoint ambassadors with the advice and consent of the Senate", and "the implicit authority to recognize foreign governments and conduct diplomacy with other countries generally."
Roque said Wednesday: "Of course, there's an issue of personal relations but I think, given time, the president can establish warm, personal relations with whoever wins this election."
US State Department under Trump
The US State Department, however, has become unrecognizable under US President Donald Trump. In 2018, over a year after Trump took office, US media outlets warned that key positions in the state department were still vacant. He also appointed a record proportion of his own financial donors to ambassadorships, who forced out career diplomats from America's embassies abroad.
Peter Michael McKinely, former senior adviser to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in an opinion piece for The Atlantic, characterized the American state department as an institution on the brink of politicization.
As it stands, it is unclear if such an agency, reportedly riddled with political appointees and a marked lack of career civil servants, can be relied on to ensure a smooth transition between administrations.
'Challenging times' for Duterte if Biden wins, analyst says
President of think tank Stratbase ADR Institute Dindo Manhit on Tuesday night told OneNews' "The Chiefs" that former Vice President Joe Biden could be "more aggressive" in addressing the human rights situation in the Philippines. He said this, based on the Democratic challenger's campaign promise to revitalize national commitment "to advancing human rights and democracy around the world."
Biden, however, both in his outlined foreign policy platform and in his public speaking engagements, has not mentioned the Philippines specifically.
Envoy to the US Babe Romualdez, said a Biden administration might "bring out the issue" of human rights, but emphasized that the Philippines would continue to assert its sovereignty.
"[T]he bottomline message that we continue to give here both to Republicans and Democrats is that we are a sovereign nation, we are a country that is a democratic country, just like the United States. We have a president that is duly elected, just like they have an election here now," Romualdez told ABS-CBN's "Headstart."
'No rush to decide on VFA'
Meanwhile, the termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement may be put on hold for another six months, according to Roque.
The agreement, signed by the Philippines and the US in 1998, allows Filipino and American forces to hold joint trainings on Philippine soil. The Senate ratified the treaty in 1999 despite concerns that it would violate Philippine sovereignty.
President Rodrigo Duterte last January announced his plan to terminate the VFA after his political ally and former police chief Sen. Ronald dela Rosa’s US visa but ordered the suspension of the abrogation for six months. The suspension is set to expire in December.
"That has the option of being further extended by another six months. So, my thinking is, perhaps the president will invoke the second six month time to finally abboragte the VFA," Roque said Wednesday.
"Anyway, what i'm saying is there's no immediate rush for the president to decide because the notification we sent to the Americans gives them at least one year leeway before it is abrogated," he added.
In terms of military support, Romualdez said members of Biden's foreign policy team have indicated that they would continue to recognize the Philippines' arbitral win against China over the South China Sea.
As of this writing, polls are closing across the United States and results are slowly trickling in. A final forecast from ABC News' FiveThirtyEight places Biden's chances of winning at 89% and Trump's at 10%.
Both candidates are racing to capture 270 electoral votes, or more, of the total 538.