MANILA, Philippines - The bid to disqualify Sen. Grace Poe in next year’s presidential election does not seem to affect her popularity.
Veteran election lawyer Romulo Macalintal said a credible gauge of this would be the results of preferential surveys conducted after the filing of Poe’s certificate of candidacy (COC) last month and the subsequent disqualification cases against her.
“If she maintains that number one position in the surveys, then it’s an indication that her candidacy is possibly not affected by the disqualification cases,” he said in a text message yesterday.
Macalintal explained that it could also be part of the momentum of Poe’s popularity in the previous months.
“If Poe still leads, that is still expected since the results are a carryover of previous surveys made before the filing of COCs,” he said.
The lawyer, however, stressed that surveys conducted after filing of COCs are usually more credible in gauging voters’ preference.
“Now that COCs had been filed and their lineups for various posts known such as their candidates in the local positions which would have great influence upon the voters, the succeeding surveys would be more reliable in terms of voters preference,” he pointed out.
“Such preference would also change when these candidates face each other in public debates and present their platforms to the electorate – that’s the time when the men will be separated from the boys, so to speak,” he added.
Macalintal issued the statement after a latest Magdalo survey showed Poe, an independent candidate, even increasing her lead over other bets despite the filing of disqualification cases against her by former senator Francisco Tatad and former Government Service Insurance System lawyer Estrella Elamparo.
According to the latest survey conducted from Oct. 20 to 22, days after the period for filing of COC, Poe topped almost all regions of the country with 43 percent of respondents favoring her, a 16-percent lead from the second placer.
“In this pre-election survey, we provided respondents with the list of known individuals who filed their certificate of candidacy for the position, and they were asked ‘If elections would be held today, who among the possible candidates would you vote for?’” Magdalo party-list Rep. Francisco Ashley Acedillo explained.
Following Poe were Vice President Jejomar Binay with 27 percent; former interior secretary Mar Roxas with 17 percent; and Sen. Miram Santiago with 11 percent.
At the tail-end of the survey were former ambassador Roy Señeres and former Technical Education and Skills Development Authority chief Augusto Syjuco, who were tied with 0.2 percent.
For vice president, Poe running mate Sen. Francis Escudero tops the survey with 37 percent. But his new rating is a 17-percent decline compared to his rating last September. Following him in second place was Sen. Ferdinand Marcos with 24 percent.
Tied in third place were Senators Antonio Trillanes IV and Alan Peter Cayetano, with 11 percent.
Coming in fifth was Roxas running mate Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo with nine percent, while Binay running mate Sen. Gringo Honasan came last with seven percent.
“We have expected that there would be substantial changes in the candidates’ ratings and rankings compared to our previous surveys as the people are now having a clearer idea who will be running in the upcoming elections,” Acedillo said.
The survey employed a multi-stage probability sampling design with almost 3,000 respondents distributed across different regions of the country. It has a margin of error of 1.8 percent.
Magdalo has conducted surveys since the 2004 presidential elections. In the April 2013 pre-election survey before the May polls, it was only Magdalo’s survey that correctly predicted Poe would top the senatorial elections when leading pollsters Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia consistently had Sen. Loren Legarda as topnotcher. Poe in the SWS survey in the same period only ranked from 10th to 12th place.
Poe has also consistently led surveys conducted by Pulse Asia and SWS as well a newspaper-commissioned survey conducted by June Laylo in which she garnered 32 percent while Roxas placed second (19 percent), followed by Binay (14 percent), Duterte (10 percent), Estrada (nine percent), Marcos (seven percent), Santiago (six percent), and Gordon (one percent).
Poe’s Senate slate
The members of Poe’s senatorial slate are representative of the various sectors.
Her campaign spokesmen, Quezon Rep. Mark Enverga and Valenzuela City Mayor Rex Gatchalian, described Poe and Escudero’s senatorial team that will be running under the banner of Partido Galing at Puso “as a unifying slate that is truly representing all the needs and concerns of the people.”
Enverga said the slate was consistent with Poe’s stand of creating a compassionate government open and willing to address the needs of the people. – With Paolo Romero