MANILA, Philippines - An American academic expert on Chinese studies believes that the international arbitration case filed by the Philippines against China's sweeping territorial claims won't succeed.
Marwyn Samuels, professor emeritus at the Syracuse University in New York, said this is because the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) will take a long time to scrutinize Manila's documents since the issue involves legal and technical matters.
"UNCLOS will have a very long time trying to come to a decision on this issue. It will not be a very quick decision," Samuels said in an interview on ANC's Headstart on Thursday.
"That's very technical. It's almost outside the legal authority of UNCLOS itself," he added.
Samuels, who is the author of the first detailed study of the origins and possible consequences of the South China Sea dispute, also pointed out that the Asian power is not likely to pay too much attention to these legal niceties.
He said China will not necessarily follow what UNCLOS has to say and it will just insist to hold bilateral talks with the Philippines.
"China indeed will not be willing to consider a third party being involved in this particular dispute. China's long-standing policy has been bilateral negotiation. So it will sustain that," the professor said.
China, the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations have overlapping claims over the South China Sea, which is believed to be rich in oil and gas resources.
Tensions continue to rise in the disputed waters, particularly in the Ayungin Shoal where the Chinese coast guard recently blocked Philippine vessels that were trying to resupply a grounded Navy ship.
The Asian giant has repeatedly accused the Philippines of infringing upon China's sovereignty and for causing the tensions to escalate.
Over the weekend, the Philippines submitted a 4,000-page memorial or written argument to the UN arbitral tribunal.
The memorial contains analysis of the applicable law and relevant evidence, and demonstrates that the arbitral tribunal has jurisdiction over all of the claims made by the Philippines in its Statement of Claim.
It also contains the documentary evidence and maps that support the Philippines’ claims, consist of more than 3,700 pages, including over 40 maps.