MANILA, Philippines – A woman and 15 men, including convicted former President Joseph Estrada, would likely run for president in May 2010 if given the opportunity to do so, a respected political analyst said yesterday.
However, the list of aspirants for the most powerful seat in Malacañang will eventually narrow down to at least five when the race officially begins in 2010, according to Antonio Gatmaitan.
Speaking before the general membership meeting of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) at the Shangri-La Hotel in Makati City, Gatmaitan said Sen. Loren Legarda would likely be the only woman candidate in the 2010 presidential polls.
Legarda ran and topped the senatorial race in 1998 with 12 million votes and did the same last year with 18 million votes.
Gatmaitan said Vice President Noli de Castro, who ran and topped the 2001 senatorial race before running and winning as guest candidate of the Lakas party for vice president in 2004, will most likely enter the race.
He also named Senate President Manuel Villar, Senate Majority Leader Francis Pangilinan and Senators Francis Escudero, Richard Gordon, Gregorio Honasan, Panfilo Lacson, and Manuel Roxas II as possible presidential bets.
Estrada, a former president who was ousted from power and subsequently convicted for plunder, is among the rather interesting personalities in the list.
Gatmaitan tagged him as the “been there, done that” guy who was mayor of San Juan from 1967 to 1985, before becoming a senator, vice president, and president of the Philippines.
Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Chairman Bayani Fernando and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro were also named as possible “presidentiables.”
Also included in Gatmaitan’s list were Quezon City Mayor Feliciano Belmonte Jr., who made Quezon City number one in the country in terms of finances, and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, an activist turned administrator who now runs the country’s business and financial capital.
Because of major political party nominations, Gatmaitan said only about five of the 16 identified “early frontliners” will actually be able to participate in the 2010 elections.
He said the Lakas-Kampi, Liberal, Nacionalista, Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino/PDP-UNO, and a so-called reform movement of some sort from civil society, will definitely push for their own candidates.
Aside from the above mentioned, Gatmaitan said Lakas-Kampi, in case it decides not to field De Castro as its official candidate, also has two other prominent personalities to choose from in the person of Congressman Luis Villafuerte and Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno.
Both are being tagged as “king makers who would be king.”
He said pressure groups that will affect the 2010 polls include the Catholic Church and other religious groups like the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines, the El Shaddai, Jesus is Lord Movement, and the Iglesia ni Cristo, as well as civil society organizations and business groups like the PCCI and the Makati Business Club.
Gatmaitan said image makers will be challenged to convince Filipino voters that their candidate possesses the principal elements of what a leader should be – matapang, magaling, madaling lapitan, may malasakit sa maliliit, and may panalo (courageous, able, accessible, has heart for the poor and winnable).
The presidential bout will actually be more dynamic with the advent of new technology because it will mean that 50 percent of the campaign will be a battle of the airwaves.
Estrada, De Castro, Legarda, Gordon, Villar, and Roxas supposedly have an advantage in this part of the game because primetime television is going to be inundated by political advertisements coming from all sides.