"Our prediction is Thailand will become like Mindanao in the next five years unless the Thai government takes decisive steps to control and contain the local insurgency," Rohan Gunaratna, head of the Singapore-based International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, told an international counterterrorism conference in Cebu City.
A Thai government official disagreed with the assessment, however, saying that most Thai Muslim insurgents are not radicals and that the situation "cannot be compared anywhere."
"We believe that the Thai Muslims are peaceful and do not agree with the method of violence," said Somwang Khruasuwan, a counselor at the Thai Foreign Ministry, emphasizing that Thai Muslims "are not comparable to Muslims in the Middle East."
"We are not very radical but we are very moderate," he said. Mindanao is home to the country’s largest Muslim separatist group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), and the notorious Muslim extremist group, Abu Sayyaf.
Militants from the Southeast Asian Islamist group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) also operate and maintain a training camp in the area with the support of the MILF and Abu Sayyaf, Gunaratna said.
The MILF, which is in peace talks with the Philippine government, denies any ties to JI.
So far there has been no evidence that Thai militants have received training in Jemaah Islamiyah camps in Mindanao, Gunaratna said.
He told reporters that the conflict in southern Thailand is changing because other Islamic militant organizations in the region are becoming involved.
"The conflict in southern Thailand is a local domestic conflict but we are seeing that the complexion is changing," Gunaratna, an acknowledged expert on terrorism in the region, said. "The insurgent groups are nationalist at this point in time but they are gradually becoming jihadist in orientation."
Insurgents there are increasingly talking of external assistance and have even launched an Arabic website, he said, adding that the Thai government’s response has been inadequate.
Many southern Thai Muslims have trained in Indonesia where they likely met with JI leaders, Gunaratna said, adding that he has no evidence that the regional militant group has assisted the Thai insurgents.
Gunaratna urged Thailand and Malaysia, which share porous borders, to cooperate in dealing with the problem. He said intelligence agents and law enforcers should replace the uniformed Thai soldiers currently deployed in the restive region as their presence fuels resentment among local residents.
Somwang, who participated in the conference, disputed Gunaratna’s view. He said the majority of Thai Muslim insurgents are not extremists and that there has been no increase in violence in Thailand’s south in recent years.
"The government has been trying its best to address the problem using hard and soft approaches as we try to win the hearts and minds of the Muslims," Somwang added.
Somwang said most intelligence reports showed that there is no evidence that Thai insurgents are receiving support from foreign militant groups.
"It is an insurgency occurring in Thailand and we consider it as something quite domestic and we think we could come to a peaceful solution in the near future," he said.
But Gunaratna insisted Thailand cannot portray its problem as an isolated case that could not be "infected and infiltrated" by jihadist groups.
"The situation in southern Thailand is a domestic conflict but we’re are all concerned with domestic conflict. The situation in Mindanao is a problem of the Filipino people but it is also a problem of (all) countries in the region," Gunaratna said.
"Today we cannot apply the strict definition ‘this is my country’ because borders are so porous and ideology and technology travel so fast."