The Philippines is expected to attain rice self sufficiency only by 2013, three years later than the original target of 2010.
This was disclosed yesterday by Philippine Rice Research Institute (Philrice) executive director Ronilo A. Beronio at the 2nd Philippine-IFAD Knowledge Learning Market held at the Astoria Hotel in Pasig.
In a presentation, Beronio further qualified that the rice self sufficiency target by 2013 would be achieve only if the country’s rice production growth rate is at least 5.10 percent annually starting next year.
Based on Philrice’s optimistic rice market outlook, the production target for 2009 should be 17.7 million metric tons (MMT) as against a palay requirement of 20 MMT for an 88.5-percent self-sufficiency level.
The previous rice self-sufficiency plan up to 2010 targetted a higher rice production of 18.5 MMT for 2009 and up to 19.8 MMT by 2010 when the country would have been 100 percent rice self sufficient.
However, Philrice’s revised self sufficiency target now aims for a production of only 18.6 MMT by 2010, with a palay requirement of 20.38 MMT for a rice self sufficiency level of 91.25 percent.
By 2011, Philrice is projecting a rice production of 19.55 MMT and a palay requirement of 20.77 MMT for a rice self sufficiency level of 94.11 percent.
By 2012, rice production should reach 20.54 MMT as against a palay requirement of 21.16 MMT for a 97.09 percent self sufficiency level.
Thus, with an annual production growth rate of 5.1 percent and a production target of 21.59 MMT by the year 2013, Philrice foresees the attainment of a 100.21 percent rice self sufficiency level.
Beronio explained that the self sufficiency outlook was revised only in August this year, taking into consideration the increase in fertilizer prices, the volatile weather due to climate change, water scarcity and rice land conversion and diversification to non-rice production.
Furthermore, on the demand side, Beronio pointed out, the revised self sufficiency outlook also took into consideration declining world rice stock, increasing import demand and the temporary export restriction imposed by major rice exporters.
For this year, the rice production target is 17.3 MMT, but indicators already show a shortfall in targeted production due to the same factors cited by Beronio for the revision.
The DA is expected to announce soon the third quarter actual rice production.