Teofisto Guingona became Vice President under the Arroyo Administration but later joined the opposition. Loren Legarda ran as the opposition vice presidential bet of Estrada’s best friend, the late-Fernando Poe Jr. Meanwhile, Aquilino Pimentel Jr., Franklin Drilon and Sergio Osmeña III have become Arroyo’s critics. John Osmeña defected to run under the Arroyo senatorial ticket in 2004 but lost. He has rejoined Estrada’s camp. Koko Pimentel (Aquilino’s son) and Alan Cayetano (son of the late Sen. Rene Cayetano and brother of administration senator Pia Cayetano) have also crossed over to Estrada’s camp.
On the other hand, Ramon Revilla and his son-in-law Robert Jaworski, Juan Ponce Enrile and Miriam Santiago have defected and have been supportive of Arroyo’s policies. Revilla’s son (Bong, Jr.) ran under the administration ticket in 2004 and won a Senate seat. Just recently, staunch Estrada supporters and President Arroyo’s critics Vicente Sotto III, Tessie Aquino-Oreta and Richard Gomez switched political leanings and earned themselves slots in the administration senatorial slate for this year’s polls.
United Opposition (UNO) is a newly-formed opposition coalition with Estrada as titular head. The so-called Third Force bets are reportedly aligning themselves with UNO. Most of its members previously ran under the Arroyo Administration ticket. Manuel Villar is largely credited for the House’s success in transmitting the Estrada impeachment complaint to the Senate for a trial. Joker Arroyo served as the House lead prosecutor. Drilon, Villar, Aquilino Pimentel, Arroyo and Loren Legarda had their shining moment during the Estrada impeachment trial when they fought an uphill battle for truth and justice. They were then looked up to and revered by the people. But in less than a decade, they seem to have lost this stature of credibility and integrity as we find them across the political fence. Ironically, they are now in the same side as those they had previously opposed.
Perhaps the biggest disappointment for many Filipinos is the decision by Cory Aquino to align herself with Estrada’s camp. She was considered one of the last (and very few) political figures whom the Filipino can rely on for credible and independent moral leadership. She was a key figure in both EDSA I and II. Thus, her teaming up with Estrada’s group, regardless of the objective, has left her legacy of credibility and independence dissipating.
Confused? So is everyone else. No wonder people have developed political apathy and would not go to the streets anymore to join political rallies. You can no longer tell who stands for what. Ask the ordinary Filipino why he has lost interest in joining rallies or in the elections itself. The likely reply is that
"Parepareho lang sila" (They’re all the same). This seems to be the pervading sentiment. There is no ideology that unites politicians. There’s no party loyalty, only political convenience. Turncoats abound. Coup plotters are not punished and they continue plotting coups. Some of them even run for office as in the case of Gregorio Honasan who landed a Senate seat. This has apparently inspired Navy Ltsg. Antonio Trillianes IV, who figured prominently in a 2003 siege against Arroyo, to run for the Senate this year.
Investing on the basis of politics is futile. Factor this into your investment plan and you are likely to be misled and be left out. People who invested on the basis of political upheavals, coup attempts or impeachment rumors ended up being whipsawed. In several articles last year, we cited data showing that the stock market is no longer beholden to political events. Any market decline due to a political turmoil was temporary. The stock market managed to rebound strongly following the political disorder.
The biggest lesson therefore is to just focus on corporate fundamentals and macroeconomic indicators which are more predictable. Stick to fundamental and technical analysis when investing. Consider such parameters as earnings prospects, valuation, and quality of management. These make for better and more dependable guide to profitable investing.
For inquiries and comments, you can email us at gime10000@yahoo.com or research@philequity.net or call Jerome Gonzalez or Ricardo Puig at 634-5038.