"We are optimistic that the entire 2003 palay production will exceed last year’s total palay figures by almost 190,000 MT. We also expect production in the fourth quarter to improve and this will be sustained in the first quarter of 2004 as we anticipate a six percent improvement over this year’s level," said Lorenzo in yesterday’s roundtable breakfast forum at the Manila Pavilion.
The DA is pinning its hopes on higher palay production in the second semester to drench talks that projected full-year growth targets for the agriculture sector will not be met because of low output in the first six months this year.
Previously, Lorenzo said palay production is expected to improve by 1.4 percent to reach 13.46 million metric tons (MT) this year, up by almost 190,000 MT from its 2002 level of 13.27 million MT.
"Despite the devastating typhoons in the third quarter which exacted heavy toll on our rice growing areas, we will end up with 2003 on a positive note, with our palay output much higher than last year’s," he said, adding, "the second semester production is seen to soar 6.3 percent to 8.08 million MT, thus compensating for the loss incurred in the first half," said Lorenzo.
Production of palay, the country’s major staple was down by 5.13 percent to 5.381 million metric tons (MT) compared to 5.6 million MT in the first half of 2002. This was due to the drought that reduced harvest areas in the major rice-growing regions of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Western Visayas, Bicol and Region 12 composed of North Cotabato, Sarangani, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat and Cotabato City.
The performance of the agriculture sector is closely being watched by the country’s ecomists since it makes up about a fifth of the country’s total economic output.
The El Niño weather disturbance limited the country’s farm sector growth to just 2.79 percent in the first quarter this year compared to the 5.24 percent expansion posted during the same period in 2002. The second quarter growth was only 1.52 percent, way off the 3.43 percent growth during the same period last year.
For the first semester, the country’s farm sector growth slowed down to just 2.4 percent in the first semester compared to the 3.22 percent growth during the same period in 2002.
As a result, Lorenzo said the DA may have to revise its full-year target of four percent.
However, Lorenzo said the government’s intensive seed distribution program combined with adequate irrigation and an expected favorable weather condition until the end of this year will all contribute to a good rice production performance this year.
To further boost output, the DA rice program under Frisco Malabanan embarked on a quick-turn-around planting mode beginning September, convincing farmers all over the country to immediately replant their field after harvest by offering subsidized fertilizers and making hybrid and certified seeds available, he said.
Due to farmers’ positive response, output for the fourth quarter is seen to grow 1.2 percent to 5.6 million MT from its year-ago level.