I had a brief conversation with GMA at a private Christmas garden party at the US Ambassador's Residence in Baguio hosted by a handsome couple US Charge d’Affaires and Mrs. Paul W. Jones. GMA seems very upbeat these days – certainly not only because of the cool air of Baguio but because of the economy. She is extremely elated that the peso has appreciated and that Spain has designated the Philippines as its Number One trading partner. Maybe GMA should go to Spain this year – she has postponed it so many times King Juan Carlos is already growing a beard.
Time Magazine’s inclusion of GMA as Number 74 in its 2005 list of "People Who Mattered," describing her as a survivor even amidst such seeming great odds, is a tacit acknowledgment that she may have ridden out the worst. And unless GMA finds herself in another hole, there’s a good indication that a successful Charter Change will have a positive effect on the country’s economy. If GMA can weather all of these just like she did last year and persuade the people about the need for changes on the new constitution – especially on the economic provisions – then this will be an added boost to the economy.
The bad side is, the people remain divided specifically on the impeachment issue. Even if people think that the impeachment process was railroaded by the majority – we still have to follow the rule of law. If the Opposition wants to do it again, then they can do so as long as it is done the proper way. That is the only way we can convince foreign investors we are a civilized society. But frankly, people are simply tired of all the politics they have been subjected to over the past five years. Now, all they want is to see the economy go up. In fact, nowadays there are many people who turn off their TV sets when "strictly politics" is discussed. As they say, in spite of and despite of the politicians – "the economy must go on".
Even IMF saw several positive developments for the Philippines, particularly with the implementation of the EVAT. Having lifted investor sentiment and causing the stock market to rally and the peso to appreciate, it confirmed what DTI Secretary Peter Favila had been saying about the EVAT. It would do a lot in wiping out the country’s budget deficit over the next five years and reduce the country’s debt burden, more so when it kicks in at the 12 percent level. In fact, the belt-tightening measures undertaken by the government allowed it to save some P35 billion. A big part of the savings will go into pump-priming the economy with focus on the areas of health, education, and infrastructure. NEDA also foresees a good start in 2006 because there has been an upsurge in investments in plants and factories by as much as 68 percent. Compared to 2004, net portfolio investments were five times higher last year. The outlook for the overall 2006 economy does seem positive.
There’s a very strong indication that many foreign entities are finalizing plans to come in and invest. The Koreans are planning to put a P3-billion shipbuilding operation in Subic. According to US industry observers, the outsourcing industry is likewise expected to expand. We already have 132,000 workers in the outsourcing business, mostly in call centers and by 2010, an additional increase of 668,000 workers is anticipated. Regionally, China and India are expected to bring in peripheral windfalls to our economy. Definitely, newly-appointed Chief Justice Art Panganiban’s statement on less judicial intervention in government contracts is very encouraging to businessmen, who are once again seriously considering the Philippines as an investment destination. Of course, the mining industry is Number One on the shopping list of these potential investors. It only goes to show that if the rule of law is followed and we level the playing field, the economy can in fact be insulated from politics.
Businessmen, especially the taipans, continue to have a positive outlook on the country’s economy. Asia Money’s selection of Banco de Oro as the company of the year is proof of Henry Sy’s optimism in the country. In fact, his group is expanding with the country’s biggest mall – The Mall of Asia – ready to open by mid-February. I had a chat during the holidays with Manny Pangilinan, who told me that First Pacific will continue to look at other investment opportunities despite the temporary setback with Del Monte. They’re now seriously looking at the power sector. So far, the PLDT Group posted over P35 billion in combined revenues last year and are hoping to make it a $1-billion revenue operation by the end of this year.
There are, of course, those who continue to be bitter and are perennial doomsayers. These are the people who are willing to "bite their nose just to spite their face." Well, let me tell you, they will be left behind, worse with deformed faces. They insist on looking at the trees and not the forest. The only way to survive this cruel world of ours is to look at the positive things around us. Even my favorite soothsayers are predicting a good year for this country. Am I an eternal optimist? You bet I am. Like many who have lived abroad for many years, we have no choice but to look at the bright side because we are here to stay. With or without politics (so much the better without it), we hope to see 2006 as the year this country finally gets on the road to prosperity!