MANILA, Philippines — Climate change has increased by 25 percent the likelihood of at least three destructive typhoons hitting the Philippines annually, according to a study by the World Weather Attribution.
Six tropical cyclones entered the country between late October and November.
The month of November was unusually active after four typhoons formed at the same time in the Pacific, the first time it has happened since 1951, Imperial College London Centre for Environmental Policy researcher Ben Clarke said at a Zoom press conference, citing the study.
“The barrage of typhoons was supercharged by climate change. While it is unusual to see so many typhoons hit the Philippines in less than a month, the conditions that gave rise to these storms are increasing as the climate warms,” Clarke said.
At least 12 researchers and scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in the Philippines, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom conducted the study, he noted.
Of the six cyclones that impacted the Philippines, Ofel (international name Usagi) and Leon (Kong-rey) were Category 3 while Pepito (Man-yi) and Marce (Yinxing) were Category 4.
Typhoon-favoring conditions will continue to increase as the climate warms, boosting the chances of destructive typhoons hitting the Philippines in the future, Clarke said.
The country needs to accelerate efforts to prepare for highly destructive cyclones, he said.
“As an archipelago, it is experiencing sea level rise more than three times faster than the global average, causing more intense storm surges from typhoons. Heavy downpours are increasing, resulting in more dangerous landslides, such as the ones that killed more than 100 people in Mindanao in late January. Heatwaves also pose major challenges during summer,” Clarke noted.
He recalled that the country was struck in April by a heatwave, with temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius that would have been virtually impossible without climate change, leading to school closures, crop failures and heat deaths.
With 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming, Clarke said similar events are expected to occur about once every 15 years.
“If warming reaches two degrees Celsius, which is expected to occur in the 2040s or 2050s if the world continues burning fossil fuels, years with at least three destructive landfalling typhoons in the Philippines will occur more often,” he said.
The report underscores the importance of interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary study of tropical cyclones in the context of their process understanding and impact across different sectors and instrumentalities, climatologist Joseph Basconcillo of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.
“Having five typhoons in less than a month was extraordinary and our study found that climate change made them much more destructive. This analysis highlights one of the many impacts threatening the lives and livelihoods of Filipinos that will only get worse as the climate warms,” Basconcillo said.