Rooftop solar panel installations in the Philippines are taking off and have likely almost doubled in the last 12 months, a recent report by private think tank Ember revealed.
The report noted that the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) measured rooftop solar in the Philippines at 721 megawatts based on satellite images up to January 2025 while generation data profiles suggest that an additional 600 MW came online in the last 12 months to April 2026.
In 2025, the Philippines’ net imports of solar panel capacity (5,068 MW) were more than five times the grid-connected utility-scale solar installed (800 MW), also suggesting a strong pickup in rooftop solar, it said.
Ember also revealed that the Philippines is China’s second-largest solar panel export market in 2026, suggesting significant rooftop pickup, with China exporting more solar panels to the Philippines than to Pakistan. In March and April alone, China exported over 3,000 MW of solar panels to the Philippines.
Ember also said that based on data from the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP), the country added around 600 MW of rooftop solar from April 2025 to April 2026. Grid generation was much lower year-on-year at midday, when solar generation is at its peak, strongly suggesting growth in rooftop solar.
Therefore, if there were 721 MW at the start of 2025, and 600 MW added since, the Philippines already has around 1,300 MW of rooftop solar installed, the report pointed out.
Yet, this is only one percent of the total potential, the report stated. The ICSC estimates that the total building rooftop area in the Philippines could theoretically support 106,000 MW of solar panels.
Ember expects distributed rooftop solar capacity in the Philippines to nearly triple to 3,500 megawatts within two years as falling equipment costs and rising electricity prices shorten payback periods.
Meanwhile, in 2025, the Philippines imported more than five times as much solar panel capacity (5,068 MW) as the grid-connected utility-scale solar it had installed (800 MW). This, Ember said, implies a large inventory buildup that will translate into future installations. The large step-up in Chinese solar panel exports in the first quarter of 2026 to 3,200 MW, buoyed by the March spike, shows that an even bigger gap is emerging, it added.
Ember’s analysis of the United Nations’ COMTRADE import and export data for the Philippines shows net solar panel imports into the country rose from $365 million in 2024 to $483 million in 2025. The increase led to a 62 percent rise in solar capacity, taking into account the fall in wholesale solar price, with solar imports rising from 3,130 MW to 5,068 MW.
The solar panels mostly came from China. Of the 2025 imports, 98 percent were from China. Around 14 percent (in value terms) was re-exported and from September 2025, much of this, for the first time, was to the US.
The report also revealed that in 2026 so far, China has exported more solar panels to the Philippines than any other country except the Netherlands (which acts as an import hub for much of Northwest Europe). The Philippines has, in fact, even overtaken Pakistan as a destination for Chinese exports.
So what brought about this surging interest in solar?
Ember pointed out that rooftop solar’s payback time, referring to how long it would take one to recover his investments in having solar installed at home by comparing the savings in electricity cost, has crashed, as electricity prices surge. Retail electricity prices in May 2026, it revealed, were 17 percent higher for retail customers, 18 percent for commercial customers and 14 percent for industrial customers, compared to May 2025.
The report emphasized that the Philippines now has the costliest residential electricity price in Southeast Asia, the second-highest commercial price and the third-highest industrial price. As a result, from May 2025 to May 2026, the payback time for residential rooftop solar has fallen from four years to just 3.1 years, for commercial rooftop from three years to just 2.3 years and for industrial rooftop from 3.9 years to 3.1 years.
It noted that the payback times for rooftop solar have hit levels that should encourage mass uptake, that concerns about future electricity price rises make it more likely and that recent policy changes have made mass adoption easier.
The report stressed that rooftop solar, with a payback of as little as two to three years, will help consumers and businesses directly cut their electricity bills and can also help the country cut its imported gas requirements.
“Meralco’s supply is approximately 60 percent natural gas, almost all dollar-denominated LNG. Although most solar panels are imported, their import cost is less than the import cost of gas needed to generate a year’s worth of electricity (based on current prices of $0.15/watt solar and $17/metric million British thermal units (MMBtu) gas. So if the solar panel lasts 20 years, it will need 20 times fewer imports than a gas power plant to produce the same amount of electricity,” it said.
It added that another benefit of rooftop solar is that with batteries, it is a far cheaper and quicker alternative to building new coal plants.
Ember cited a report from the International Renewable Energy Agency showing that solar and batteries in sunny countries can provide electricity for 95 percent of the year at just $55-$80 per megawatt-hour. This is substantially cheaper than the cost of new coal power plants, at $87-$117/MWh.
“This is especially true after adding the grid savings of rooftop compared to centralized power plants,” it said.
Ember also explained that recent policy adjustments have helped make rooftop solar cheaper and more attractive. It noted that from early 2026, it should now take only 10 days to get net metering approval from the distribution utility and only three working days to issue an electrical permit.
The report further said that it also has become more attractive for the commercial and industrial sectors to install rooftop solar.
From February 2026, it is now possible for multi-site and aggregate net metering which means that one shop could install more rooftop solar than its electricity demand, and this would offset against another shop that did not. Power purchase agreements will be more attractive from June 2026. The Energy Regulatory Commission has updated the Retail Competition and Open Access regulations to allow customers with over 100 kW demand to choose their own supplier, enabling a solar developer to build rooftop solar and sell the electricity back to the roof owner under a PPA, thereby unbundling electricity supply and demand.
In addition, the November 2024 CREATE MORE Act has changed the business tax rules on expense deduction to make rooftop solar more attractive, the report explained.
The fact that Philippines has the highest residential electricity prices in Southeast Asia and provides few power subsidies makes rooftop solar more attractive despite high upfront costs, a recent Reuters report also said.
It added that the surge in demand has driven imports of Chinese solar panels to $407 million in the three months through May, up by 145 percent from a year earlier, according to Chinese trade data.
It, however, noted that widespread adoption continues to face obstacles, including high upfront costs, supply bottlenecks and limited access to government-backed financing, which excludes the private sector.
A recent Pulse Asia survey commissioned by the ICSC revealed that nearly all Filipinos (97 percent) agree that the government should make rooftop solar more affordable.
According to ICSC, the survey indicates that the challenge is no longer convincing Filipinos about the benefits of rooftop solar, but instead, in making it affordable.
About 93 percent of respondents stated that rising electricity demand makes affordable rooftop solar increasingly necessary while 91 percent said that widespread adoption is viable if affordable financing options are made available.
ICSC added that amidst rising electricity costs, 85 percent of respondents now view rooftop solar as a necessity rather than a luxury, underscoring a shift in how many Filipinos see rooftop solar as a practical option for managing energy costs.
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