It is becoming increasingly likely that the 2024 US presidential contest will be a rerun of the 2020 fight between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. No one seems to be happy about this but the contest is being shaped by what seems to be an irresistible momentum.
Biden is now 80. He will be 82 by the time the next elections come around. If he wins reelection, he will be 86 by the time his second term ends.
According to surveys, a majority of Democrats would rather that someone else carry the party standard – and lead the nation through the troubled years ahead. With improvements in medical care, it has been said that 80 is new 60. That is not reassuring. Although he tries to look spritely, Biden moves visibly slower and avoids press conferences.
Unfortunately, the Democratic Party suffers from a dearth of leadership material. In addition, Biden enjoys equity of the incumbent in a party that respects that principle.
Trump is younger by about two years. A jury recently convicted him for sexual assault. He faces the prospect of a slew of other cases involving his financial dealings and his attempts to block the outcome of the last election.
Despite his seriously warped personality and the calamity of his first term in office, however, Trump has a strong fan base among rural Republican diehards. A number of major contributors who funded Tump in previous elections declared they will no longer support his candidacy. Notwithstanding, his political showmanship and sheer cynicism has made him the major player on the Republican side.
Trump’s political resilience is helped by a dearth in emerging political leaders in the Republican Party as well. The reliable base of Republican voters will continue supporting Trump despite all the lies he peddles and his alarming ignorance about the modern world.
For a while, it seemed Florida governor Ron DeSantis would provide strong competition to Trump’s bid to win the party’s nomination. Over the past few weeks, however, DeSantis’ political stock plummeted sharply as he showed himself to be dogmatic and pig-headed. He picked a useless fight with Disney, driven by the same egoism that possesses Trump.
This early in the game where many of the major players have formally declared they were campaigning for the presidency, only marginal candidates have thrown their hats into the ring. Most of those who already did are, even this early, considered also-rans.
When a jury convicted Trump for sexual assault, his popularity among Republican voters actually rose. He is now polling even better than at this same point in his two previous presidential runs. Those who see Trump as a total charlatan who managed to occupy the center of the political stage are totally confounded by this.
One very recent poll actually put Trump ahead of Biden in a general election scenario. This alarms the rest of the world and people are wondering what sort of malignancy has infected American politics, such that the King of Chaos might actually return to the presidency.
There are those within the Republican fold very worried Trump’s resurgence will be the worse fate the Grand Old Party could suffer. In a general elections, they are convinced that Trump will lose the urban vote. He cannot possibly win the decisive suburban women’s vote. He will surely be trashed by voters with higher educational attainment.
As a candidate, Trump is expected to take even more absurd positions on the issues of the day as he panders to the Republican hard core. He has increasingly indulged in White nationalist rhetoric and taken a hard anti-abortion stance. These positions will repel the mainstream voters.
Clearly, Trump is capitalizing on the reactionary Republican electoral base. This base gives him a leg up in the primaries – the process that decides the party’s nominee. He might moderate his positions and hew closer to the mainstream after the primaries. But that seems more like wishful thinking.
It does not help normalize Republican party politics that Biden appears vulnerable. Beyond the matter of his advanced age, his job approval ratings are falling as the administration fails to contain inflation, deal with the migrant crisis and help businesses thrive. In addition, the Biden administration is under constant attack from Republican politicians, including holding the debt ceiling hostage to force their policy agenda.
Biden’s vice president Kamala Harris has even lower approval ratings. Given Biden’s age, Democrats worry that Harris may not be a strong choice for possible successor should a reelected Biden fail to complete his second term.
The rest of the world worries the current dynamics of US electoral politics will cause this major power to lose vitality in global affairs. Unable to produce younger statesmen to bring new vision and energy to national leadership, America has fallen into an inescapable choice of old and faded political players. Its strange domestic politics has left government unable to deal with the challenges posed by climate change. American politics has been bogged down on the matter of easy gun ownership that, this year, caused more mass shootings than there are days.
As the world awaits a wide and possibly deep recession, as wars seem to break out in every corner and as climate change demands a creative worldwide response, it saddens most of us that the US appears to have fallen under the grip of gerontocracy. In a new world, America can only provide old leaders.