What if VP is or isn’t removed from office?

By all the looks of it, I truly believe that VP Sara is going to be acquitted by the Senate impeachment court. Impeachment is not a judicial proceeding but a political konfrontasi. He who has the stronger evidence may be defeated by the side who has eight senators that are enough to acquit. But for the sake of argument, let us just assume that which is improbable, that Sara is convicted.

In the event that the Senate shall, by an affirmative vote of 16 senators, convict the already-impeached vice president, Article XI of the Constitution, section 3, paragraph 7 provides that she shall be removed from office. In addition to removal, the Senate may impose the accessory penalty of perpetual disqualification from holding public office.

But such conviction by the Senate, as an impeachment court, does not carry with it the penalty of imprisonment. That shall require a separate criminal proceeding where she shall be indicted by the DOJ and shall be charged in the proper court, specifically the Sandiganbayan if and when she is charged with plunder. That is if the evidence warrants. If convicted, like former president Joseph Estrada, she will go to prison. But president BBM may pardon her as GMA did with Erap.

The next question is who shall replace her as vice president. Article VII, section 9 of the Constitution provides the answer." Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the vice president, during the term for which she was elected, the president shall nominate a vice president from among the members of the Senate or the House of Representatives, who shall assume office upon confirmation by majority vote of all members of both Houses, voting separately."

There is an apropos legal precedent. When Erap was unceremoniously declared to have constructively or impliedly resigned after the so-called EDSA II, Vice President GMA assumed the presidency. Thus the office of the vice president became vacant. Therefore, following the mandate of Article VII, Section 9, GMA nominated Teofisto Guingona Jr. who was forthwith confirmed by both the Senate and the House voting separately then.

Thus, if the office of Vice President Sara becomes vacant after her conviction by the Senate, President BBM may nominate Chiz Escudero or Martin Romualdez. And if either of the two accepts and is confirmed by both chambers, then we shall have a new vice president in 2026. The president can even appoint his rather unpredictable elder sister Imee (that is if she is reelected), or Sandro Araneta Marcos who will surely be reelected.

If I were to advise the president, he should appoint a Muslim because we never have had a Muslim vice president. If he wants to give Cebu another chance to have another Don Sergio Osmeña Sr., President BBM may want to appoint Duke Frasco or Edu Rama assuming that these two gentlemen will be reelected. Which I do believe they will be. In other words, BBM can choose even Raffy Tulfo, Lito Lapid, or Manny Pacquiao if they win another mandate.

BBM should be very careful though. Vice President Guingona turned against GMA by denouncing her publicly. Vice President Salvador Laurel had a falling out with president Cory Aquino. There was no love lost from the very start between President Duterte and Vice President Leni Robredo just like when the president was Carlos P. Garcia and his vice president was Diosdado Macapagal.

The Uniteam of BBM and Inday Sara was a "marriage of convenience". There was no love at all. It was arranged by GMA and Senator Imee. It was a relationship that ended with the adage “easy come, easy go”. That is how the cookie crumbles. All is not fair in love and politics.

Again, to go back to realpolitik, Sara has more than eight senators to acquit her: Robinhood, Mark Villar, Alan Peter Cayetano, Jinggoy Estrada, Migz Zubiri, plus the sure winners Bong Go, Bato, Manny Pacman, Willy Revillame, Pia Cayetano, Abby Binay, Bong Revilla, Lito Lapid, Imee Marcos, and Camille Villar. That means 14 out of 24 for Sara. Goodbye, BBM.

Removing the vice president by electing senators who are pro-impeachment is the BBM strategic and tactical goal. The exact opposite is Duterte's main ballgame. That is the true meaning of the coming senatorial elections. All the rest are only collateral wins and collateral damage. May 12 is the ultimate game of life or death for the Marcoses and the Duteretes. The rest of the nation is all pawns.