Gwen, Raymond, Jonkie, Lolypop, Duke, Sun lead in latest survey

CEBU, Philippines — The “Boses ng Bayan” initiative of RPMD Foundation Inc. (RPMD) has unveiled its latest assessment of public officials in the Central Visayas region.

The independent, non-commissioned survey, conducted from March 25 to 31, 2025, involved 2,500 randomly selected respondents across the province.

It shows that 95.8 percent of Cebuanos back Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia—starkly contrasting with her lone challenger, Pamela Baricuatro, who garnered 3.2 percent.

According to Dr. Paul Martinez, executive director of RPMD and a global affairs analyst, Baricuatro’s campaign has failed to gain traction as it focuses on attacking Garcia instead of offering a clear platform.

Martinez said that Garcia’s political coalition is not only loyal—it’s formidable.

“One Cebu, her party, operates like a well-oiled machine. Cebu mayors, congressional representatives, and local officials are her allies. Attacking her is not just a miscalculation—it’s a direct confrontation with the entire political structure of the province,” Martinez said.

But Baricuatro has brushed off the survey, as she expressed gratefulness to her supporters.

“Sa tunga sa kasaba sa survey, kasaba sa duda, ug kasaba sa mga buaya sa kapangyarihan—nagpabilin nga lig-on ang usa ka tinud-anay nga baruganan," said Baricuatro in her Facebook post.

Cebu and mandaue cities

The independent and non-commissioned poll, held from February 8 to 15, 2025, using random face-to-face interviews with 1,800 respondents, revealed that in the Cebu City mayoralty race, Mayor Raymond Garcia has widened his lead with a commanding 56 percent voter preference.

He is trailed by Cebu City Councilor Nestor Archival (22 percent), former Cebu City Mayor Michael Rama (19 percent), and former Customs Commissioner Yogi Ruiz (3 percent).

“The data shows that Garcia is on a steady upward trajectory. Archival may have gained modest traction, but it’s far from enough to create a competitive race. The bigger story is the steep fall of Mike Rama, who appears to be decisively rejected by voters amid past controversies and his dismissal from office,” Martinez said.

In the Mandaue City mayoralty race, the “Boses ng Bayan” survey, reportedly conducted from March 25 to 31, 2025, through face-to-face interviews with 1,800 randomly selected residents, shows that Cebu Sixth District Provincial Board Member Jonkie Ouano holds a commanding lead with 55 percent voter preference. His rival, former Mayor Jonas Cortes, garnered 40 percent.

Martinez said that this 10 percent lead translates to approximately 22,600 votes, amounting to an estimated 124,300 supporters backing Ouano.

Martinez emphasized that Mandaue City appears poised for a generational shift in leadership.

Congressional races

In the Mandaue City congressional race, the same survey shows that incumbent Rep. Emmarie “Lolypop” Ouano-Dizon commands an overwhelming 84 percent (+2 percent) support from Mandauehanon voters, leaving her rival, former City Treasurer Atty. Regal Oliva, with 16 percent (+3 percent).

In the Cebu Fourth District congressional race, the survey shows that incumbent Daanbantayan Mayor Sun Shimura secured 49 percent voter support, overtaking incumbent and reelectionist Janice Salimbangon, who garnered 45 percent.

Martinez said that the survey results serve as both a warning and an opportunity—for Shimura, it’s a validation of strategy and positioning, while for Salimbangon, it’s a call to reassess her campaign machinery and re-engage with a constituency weighing its options.

“With election day approaching, all eyes are now on Cebu’s 4th District, where a closely contested battle may become one of the province’s most pivotal races,” Martinez said.

In Cebu’s Fifth District congressional race, House Deputy Speaker and incumbent Rep. Vincent “Duke” Frasco continues to command voter support, securing a staggering 85 percent against his challenger, Danao City Mayor Mix Durano, who got 15 percent based on the latest survey.

In Cebu’s Second District, incumbent Rep. Edsel Galeos emerged as the overwhelming favorite among voters, securing a commanding 66 percent voter preference against his rival, Cebu Vice Gov. Junjun Davide, who garnered 14 percent.

Notably, Martinez said Frasco and Galeos' roles as signatories in the controversial impeachment case against Vice President Sara Duterte did not dent their public standing.

Cebu-based party-list race: Ako bisaya in top 3

The RPMD Foundation Inc., in partnership with RPMD News Network Inc. (RPMD News), in their face-to-face survey reprotedly conducted from March 25 to 31, 2025, with 5,000 randomly selected respondents, shows that the Tingog partylist leads with 7.58 percent, represented by Rep. Yedda Romualdez and Rep. Jude Acidre.

ACT-CIS follows closely with 6.32 percent, led by Rep. Jocelyn Tulfo and Rep. Edvic Yap. The Ako Bisaya party list secured 6.17 percent, represented by Rep. Sonny “SL” Lagon and Carissa Garcia. The 4Ps partylist obtained 5.76 percent, represented by Reps. Marcelino Libanan and JC Abalos.

RPMD added that based on current support levels, these four party-list groups are statistically positioned to secure three congressional seats each.

Martinez emphasized the importance of influential endorsements, particularly in vote-rich provinces like Cebu.

Ako Bisaya Party-list second nominee, Carissa Garcia, is the daughter of Governor Garcia.

“Command votes from leaders such as Governor Gwen Garcia can significantly alter the final party-list rankings. The last two weeks will be critical for groups fighting for the margin,” Martinez further said.

The Freeman is reporting the results of this survey as released by the RPMD. The publication has no independent means of verifying the survey’s methodology or accuracy.— (FREEMAN)