Slow burn

As the partial, unofficial count for the Senate race got underway in the evening of May 12, Francis Pangilinan and his relatives led by his famous wife Sharon Cuneta looked for his name in the lower rungs of the so-called Magic 12 winning list.

All the surveys, after all, had put him just outside the magic circle.

With the vote count rising rapidly, they set their sights lower down the list of over 60 candidates. Their hearts were sinking as their search went farther down when someone spotted his name.

Not near the bottom, but way up there, in fifth place.

For a while, they thought there must have been a mistake, Pangilinan told me last Thursday on The Philippine STAR’s online show “Truth on the Line.”

Doubts, however, soon gave way to surprised jubilation. His colleague in the traditional opposition, Bam Aquino, was in an even more phenomenal second place, next to the only candidate whose ranking in the race the pollsters got right: Sen. Bong Go.

After progressively greater losses in every election since 2016, the opposition identified with the so-called yellow and pink forces made a dramatic comeback, particularly in the party-list race where Chel Diokno’s Akbayan bagged the top spot with over 2.7 million votes, and Leila de Lima’s ML (Mamamayang Liberal) landed in the top 15.

The development has been as disastrous for local survey firms as the past two elections in the US have been for American pollsters.

Kiko Pangilinan isn’t the only one urging the pollsters to conduct a post mortem on how they all got the results so wrong.

Pangilinan admitted to me that pre-election surveys made it difficult for those who were rating low, like him and the other traditional opposition bets and party-lists, to get funding for their campaigns.

Diokno, who had a separate interview with Truth on the Line last Friday, along with another Akbayan stalwart said the same thing, although Diokno said it was normal behavior for many of those investing in political campaigns.

The question is what’s next for the traditional opposition (as opposed to the “new” one of the Duterte supporters).

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Pangilinan, De Lima and Diokno have all ruled out a political alliance with the Marcos administration, which needs new allies following the ugly breakup of the vaunted UniTeam.

But the opposition stalwarts said an alliance on issues is possible – something which we are already seeing, in the case of Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment, the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte and President Marcos’ stand on China and the West Philippine Sea.

Instead of a formal alliance, this opposition camp can emerge as a significant third force in the 2028 race, when the Marcos-Romualdez and Duterte camps – both of them still formidable – are expected to face off again.

Current speculation revolves around who will become the new opposition leader. The one occupying the highest post in government is traditionally regarded as the head of the opposition. Today it’s Sen. Risa Hontiveros of Akbayan.

Former vice president Leni Robredo won handily as mayor of Naga City, and has shown endorsement power in this year’s vote. But she has said she prefers to remain in local politics. Will she change her mind for 2028?

All eyes are on returning senator Bam Aquino, who attained a stunning second place thanks to a combination of support from the pink-yellow forces plus the Iglesia Ni Cristo, which also sent INC member Rodante Marcoleta to sixth place.

People are wondering why the INC endorsed Aquino but not Pangilinan, and whether a quid pro quo is Bam’s vote in favor of VP Sara in the Senate impeachment trial.

Bam ran under a new party, the Katipunan ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino. Pangilinan ran under the Liberal Party which he currently chairs.

Aquino’s strong showing has fueled speculative reports that he is among the contenders for Senate president in the incoming 20th Congress. The post can be a springboard for the 2028 presidency.

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Pangilinan, Akbayan and Chel Diokno as well as De Lima’s ML attribute their victory to the pink wave – 15 million strong in 2022 – and particularly to the youth vote. Official data showed that Filipinos age 40 and younger accounted for over 60 percent of the voters. This is the age group that is most open to (and impatient for) social reforms and change.

Diokno, learning from mistakes, told me that they fielded fewer candidates, revised their messaging and strengthened their social media engagement to appeal to a wider demographic especially the youth.

In previous elections, Pangilinan had already pinned hopes of victory on the youth vote. But this is the first time that the age group delivered for the traditional opposition.

It has been a slow burn for Filipino voters, and the traditional opposition must be able to tap into this disenchantment with politics-as-usual, all the way to 2028.

The cynical view that money and machinery, dynasties and religious bloc votes still prevailed in the elections is unassailably evident in the results, but it doesn’t explain the votes for Akbayan, ML and Pangilinan.

Now the opposition must not lose the momentum, and must remember that in unity there is strength. The UniTeam in 2022 was the best example, with the Solid North and strong South delivering the biggest-ever victory for the standard bearer and his running mate.

In that race, the opposition ignored the warning of 1Sambayan that the only way to defeat the UniTeam juggernaut was a unified slate. No one listened, and the UniTeam crushed the opposition.

Today, this early, there are already indications of cracks in the traditional opposition coalition. They should all move to prevent big egos and ambitions from dividing their ranks and allowing the current feuding camps to dominate 2028 again.

The UniTeam dramatically showed the power of unity, and for Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in particular, the value of playing the long game. The collapse of the UniTeam should be a cautionary tale for the traditional opposition.