Speculating on Trump’s policies towards China

President Donald Trump has always maintained a confrontational stance towards China. He counts the communist republic as the single most significant challenge to US economic and strategic interests not only in the Indo-Pacific but the world.

In his first presidential term, Trump took several measures aimed to curb China’s military rise and blunt its growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. This included strengthening American military presence in the South China Sea, strengthening defense ties with regional allies and conducting joint military exercises with the Philippines.

He increased arms sales to Taiwan and passed the Taiwan Travel Act, which allowed high-level exchanges between the US and Taiwan. He deployed missile defense systems in the Indo-Pacific. He also confronted China for its military assertiveness.

How will Trump’s second presidency look like as far as its relations with China goes? What will it mean for sovereign nations on the receiving end of Chinese aggression like Taiwan, the Philippines and even Australia?

Barely three months into his presidency and Trump’s China policies are not yet so well defined. However, the selection of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Michael Waltz as National Security Adviser and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense is a telling sign of Trump’s posture vis-a-vis China.

Marco Rubio as Secretary of State

Marco Rubio is arguably the most prominent “China Hawk” in Washington. For those unaware, the term “China Hawk” refers to a political figure who takes a hardline stance against China, particularly on matters relating to geopolitics, trade, military strategy and human rights. China Hawks advocate strong policies to counter China’s influence and/or assertiveness.

Since 2015, Rubio served in the Senate’s Foreign Affairs East Asia subcommittee. He advocated for more engagements, more arms sales and more strategic collaboration with Taiwan. Rubio introduced the Taiwan Reinforcement Act to elevate US focus on Taiwan, as well as the Taiwan Peace Through Strength Act, which would fast track arms sales to the island republic. He worked to strengthen Taiwan’s diplomatic presence by supporting its inclusion in multilateral organizations.

In 2021, Rubio stated that “the United States should be as clear as possible about what it seeks to deter – the use of force by Beijing – as well as what it is prepared to do if deterrence fails – to defend Taiwan.” Rubio maintains that the China-Taiwan issue should be prioritized over other conflicts, including the Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts.

As America’s Secretary of State, it is likely that Rubio will act on his core beliefs. That is, that China poses an existential threat to America’s position in the world and that Taiwan must be protected from annexation at all cost.

Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor

Michael Waltz has gained the reputation for being an outspoken China Hawk. As Trump’s National Security Advisor, he will surely focus on enhancing US military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.

Waltz served as a policy director in the Department of Defense in the 2010’s. This was the period when China began its military build-up and the Pentagon began to look at China with worry. It was then that the Pentagon strengthened its military presence in the South China Sea. Waltz’s time in the Department of Defense heavily influenced his views towards Beijing and issues surrounding the Indo-Pacific.

In 2020, Waltz was named to the China Task Force in Congress. The task force published a report that advocated several updates on US policies towards Taiwan.

In terms of legislation, Waltz introduced a bill to prevent federal employees from using their retirement funds to inadvertently fund China’s military build-up as well as a bill to reduce American dependence on critical minerals from China. In 2021, Waltz co-introduced the Taiwan Defense Act for the US to maintain its ability to defeat China in case it attempts to seize control of Taiwan. Waltz also championed the amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act to bolster defenses against Chinese espionage and to authorize military exercises with Taiwan.

Waltz believes that Beijing plans to take Taiwan by 2027 and that the US needs to be clear if it will defend Taiwan or not. Knowing that the US will defend Taiwan against an invasion is the greatest deterrence. He believes the US needs to improve its ability to project naval power in the Indo-Pacific and transfer more arms to Taiwan.

Waltz is the leading voice in advocating an increase in military strength projection in the Indo-Pacific and this will likely be his focus as Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense

Recent Malacañang visitor, Pete Hegseth was a Fox News host and US Army National Guard veteran before being named Secretary of Defense. His selection is a sign Trump is focused on purging the military’s top ranks of purported “woke generals.”

In 2024, Hegseth published a book, “The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free.” In this book, Hegseth argues that “woke” policies have led to the military’s deterioration, to the endangerment of the country.

Hegseth’s concern over China’s rise and intention to topple the US is reason to believe that China will be his top priority as Secretary of Defense.

Considering the personal inclinations of Trump’s Secretaries of State, Defense and National Security Advisor, we can logically conclude that the Trump administration will take a tougher stance in its engagements with China. This will manifest itself in the realms of trade, security, geopolitical and military interactions.

This bodes well for Taiwan, the Philippines and all those threatened by China’s spree of illegal territorial grabs.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan