After brief Luzon grid yellow alert, energy advocates warn of power disruptions in 2025 polls

MANILA, Philippines — An energy consumer advocacy group warned that power outages driven by peak summer demand could affect the 2025 midterm elections, citing the recent yellow alert over the Luzon grid as a sign of a looming power crisis. 

In a statement on Thursday, March 6, the Power for People Coalition (P4P) said that while emergency shutdowns of coal-fired power plants are common in the summer, they should be a cause for concern with the elections just two months away.

“With elections due in around two months, this puts the conduct of electoral campaigns and the elections itself in peril; hence, our belief that power and energy should be among the main issues of this electoral cycle,” P4P Convenor Gerry Arances said. 

On Wednesday, March 5, the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) raised a yellow alert over the Luzon grid due to insufficient energy supply to meet contingency requirements, as electricity demand that afternoon exceeded their estimations.

NGCP reported that eight power plants had been on forced outage since February, while four others had been “out” since 2024. Meanwhile, 16 plants are currently operating at reduced capacity. The total unavailable supply due to outages and derated capacities stands at 3,362.3 megawatts.

The yellow alert lasted for nearly three hours, from 5 p.m. to 7:49 p.m. During the alert, the Luzon grid had an available capacity of 12,638 megawatts, with peak demand reaching 11,617 megawatts. 

Before the alert, demand was higher at 11,829 megawatts, while available capacity stood at 12,488 megawatts.

The Department of Energy (DOE) has been urged to act swiftly to address a potential energy crisis this summer, as rising temperatures drive up power consumption.

The DOE projects peak demand in 2025 to reach 14,769 megawatts in Luzon, 3,111 megawatts in Visayas and 2,789 megawatts in Mindanao — a 5.4% increase in Luzon compared to April last year.

Meanwhile, the maximum adjusted available generating capacity stands at 15,054 megawatts for Luzon, 3,040 megawatts for Visayas, and 3,314 megawatts for Mindanao, according to the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program for 2025 to 2027.

Arances said that a long-term solution would require reducing the country's reliance on fossil fuel plants, which not only produce greenhouse gas emissions that drive up temperatures but also struggle with higher energy demand during the summer as a result.

“Power consumption rises along with the temperature, and we hope that the energy sector can deliver. But in the long term, we should also understand that the rising temperatures which we try to deal with are caused to a large extent by our reliance on fossil fuel plants powered by coal and gas, the same plants that fail when electricity is needed the most,” he added.

Citing a 2024 study by the Center for Energy, Ecology, and Development (CEED), coal plants accounted for 51.23% of forced outage incidents from 2019 to 2023, while gas plants made up 19.87%.

“As long as our power mix remains reliant on coal and gas, plant outages will remain a perennial concern during the summer,” Arances said.

During the 2022 national and local elections, the Manila Electric Company (Meralco) reported 35 isolated power outages on May 9 but maintained that they did not constitute a “major power interruption.”

Meanwhile, the National Electrification Administration (NEA) recorded 131 power disruptions from 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. on the same day, affecting 105 electric cooperatives. Each outage lasted an average of 50 minutes.

Power instability and brownouts were reported in various parts of the country during the voting process in the 2022 elections, adding to concerns over malfunctioning vote-counting machines in the automated election system.

Arances urged voters to choose leaders who go beyond telling consumers to save electricity and instead have concrete plans to reduce reliance on fossil fuel power plants and invest in alternative energy sources.

According to the DOE’s Power Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2050, the government aims to raise the share of renewable energy in the power generation mix to 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040 by expanding offshore wind power, introducing nuclear energy, and repurposing existing coal plants.