WTF is happening now?

Your daily review of what happened since the last time we talked.

> Trade war:  Data is starting to emerge that gives the bite of the trade war some body and substance. US soybean exports in the 3rd week of April were down 50% week-on-week. Pork exports were down 72% week-on-week. We’re still waiting on Q1 GDP. Sure, the “global” part of the trade war is restricted to Q2, but the US/Canada portion could have an impact on Q1.

> Dow:  Markets recovered moderately through the Friday session. A very weak recovery, but still.

> Gold:  Gold is holding in the $3,333 region, which still feels wild to say. It’s even more wild that it feels somewhat disappointing that it’s only $3,333. It felt like gold was $1,000 to $1,200 forever. 
 

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> Bitcoin:  BTC is cautiously up like the DJIA, but BTC is not acting like a “flight-to-safety”. It’s acting like a “risk-on” play like investing long on the economy.

> Black swan:  India and Pakistan exchanged live fire after a huge terrorist incident. This New York Times headline: “India Seems to Be Building Its Case for Striking Pakistan” [link].

  MB BOTTOM-LINE:  I swear it’s been months since we’ve had a weekend that chill. Maybe the Pope’s funeral has everyone distracted (except for India/Pakistan), and the bratty kids will resume their bratty schemes when the private planes take those bratty kids back to home cooking.